Archive for July 2009
NYSE embraces a Ruinous Idea
by Rick Ackerman
Posted July 31, 2009
http://www.rickackerman.com/
SADLY, ANOTHER VENERABLE American institution has lost its way: the New York Stock Exchange. We read the other day that the Exchange is building a fast-trade hub in northern New Jersey that supposedly will help secure its future in an increasingly electronic world. But raising capital for companies that could conceivably help Build a Better Tomorrow is nowhere on their agenda. In fact, “fast trading” will be about as helpful in achieving that goal as placing five hundred slot machines in the NYSE’s lobby. Instead of one-armed bandits, however, the Exchange will be installing in its new Mahwah facility some very sophisticated computing equipment that will allow hedge funds and other firms to engage in high-frequency trading.
This type of trading is all the rage these days, and the firms that do it will be trying to get the jump on other traders who lack the hardware to execute scores or even hundreds of transactions in mere seconds. Firms on the cutting edge will be better able to exploit order flow in ways that traders could not have imagined even five years ago. Our guess is that fast trading was invented by the same geeks who gave us program trading. Who’d have imagined they could one-up themselves with yet a new game to further destabilize the markets?
Obama’s Bix Fix
By Carl Ginsburg
Posted June 19 – 21, 2009
Placating the Bankers, Again
THE ADMINISTRATION’S FINANCIAL fix-it plan was laid out this week and it was, underwhelming, to say the least. The New York Times dubbed it, “back to business as usual..” not a phrase commonly seen in the paper of record which, by the way, essentially managed to miss the true source of the country’s crisis – Underpaid America – for two generations.
None of this comes as a surprise given the top priority Mr. Obama set early on to fund banks and financial institutions. Everybody else should hang in there and brace yourselves for the Great Marginalization. So, aid to banks stays in place; derivatives are to remain a critical part of the finance system; there’ll be enhanced protection for accredited consumers who can still borrow money and invest. In other words, the protection of existing pools of money and investment is the goal of this government.
That is fine unless, of course, you have little or none of that money. That would be the millions of Americans who helped raise America’s productivity to new heights and got no rewards for the effort, for whom a pension system has fallen away and for whom there are now mounting health care and energy costs. Let’s keep in mind that the average consumer debt of an American family is $10,000. Let’s not kid ourselves: that’s an amount that served to augment low wages (much like food stamps for the working poor) and did not fund extravagant lifestyles, a popular obfuscation in the media embrace of Obama’s sociology.
Low wage America slammed people and NOTHING the Obama administration has on the table now or in the pipeline will address that fundamental dynamic this year, next… ever. Meanwhile, profits are up. Business Week reports: “Bank Reap Handsome Profits Cashing Out of Chinese Banks.” Those winners include Goldman Sachs, the investment firm that received $20 billion via our government bailout of insurance giant AIG. That’s called “restoring confidence”.
We are to continue life in one of the most economically stratified countries in the industrial world… as speculators swoop in buying up foreclosed properties, adults compete with high school kids for summer jobs, the price of gas goes back over $3 a gallon, and the stock market goes up, trumpeting “labor savings” as key to profit growth, the same labor savings that triggered the credit crunch. That simple and obvious construct – low wages triggered the crisis – seems to elude the so-called progressive pundits at MSNBC. The crisis we face is Mr. Obama’s cold indifference to the fact that growing numbers of American families cannot get by this year. He seems entirely disconnected from the economic realities of working Americans. If President Obama wants to get something done he is going to have to, in the words of one financial columnist, “make some bankers mad”. Fat chance.
Carl Ginsburg is a tv producer and journalist based in New York.
Mass Layoffs: The Continuing Devastation
by Gary North
July 25, 2009
This is a short excerpt from an article of the same title, reprinted in full on sidebar, under Pages.
A MASS LAYOFF IS LIKELY to take place in one town. They would not be individual layoffs spread across several plants or regions. They are likely to hit one plant. The company shuts down a division. It finds that the entire output of a plant or a division is no longer profitable.
When this happens, the loss of income is concentrated in one geographical area. This hits housing harder than if the layoffs had been spread across several plants located in different towns.
Without warning, every fired person must scramble to get a job. The local market finds it costly to absorb all of them at once. The obvious response of employers is to offer a lower salary without fringe benefits. The job-seekers are not in a position to negotiate. They have bills to pay.
One of these bills is the monthly mortgage. It is a large share of the household budget. The family will resist skipping this payment. But, if they are facing a mortgage that is now larger than the market value of the home, they are tempted to stop paying.
If they knew how expensive it is for a lender to hire a lawyer and pursue the foreclosure in civil court in most states, a lot more families would stop paying. How much does foreclosure cost the lender? On average, $50,000. This includes the loan loss ($40,000 on a $210,000 home), lawyers’ fees, and court costs.
The lender does not want to foreclose, because the loss must be recorded. It can be delayed for as long as there is no final transfer of the house to the lender. The lender may like to threaten to foreclose, but if the family abandons the home, it becomes a high-risk asset. No money is coming in. The house is deteriorating. Vandals may hit the house. Squatters may move in.
The family finally has to throw in the towel. It either walks away from the home or is evicted. In either case, the equity is gone. The family now has a large black mark on its credit. It will be hard for the family to get a bank loan in the future. It may have to declare bankruptcy.
The threat posed by mass layoffs is terrible for a family. Yet people don’t see these layoffs coming. They stay in a doomed career, hoping that there will be some deliverance. In June, deliverance did not come for 279,231 workers.
Month after month, this process continues relentlessly. Occasionally, a television news show will cover a town that has been hit with a major mass layoff. But there is no realization that these events are taking place, month by month, in thousands of communities.
Britons will be poorer in coming decades
by Edmund Conway
Published: 11 Jul 2009
Chances are you are already bored to death with the endless debate on public spending and the fiscal deficit. For weeks, Labour and Conservatives have traded blows in Parliament over the extent to which the other will cut its spending plans. The next chapter is likely to concern tax rises, as the Tories lay into the Government for hiding their planned increases after the election. But, like it or not, the budget and its parlous state will remain one of the most contentious and hotly-debated topics next year.
The reason is very simple. The combined effect of the financial crisis and recession has been to generate a deficit the likes of which has not been since since the aftermath of the Second World War. Britain’s total public sector net debt will be catapulted from a level of below 40pc last year to around 80pc or perhaps 100pc and beyond.
In part, this is due to the extra cash needed for unemployment benefits, bailing out stricken banks such as HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland and temporary Keynesian tax cuts and spending increases. But the greater part of the black hole is due to the fact that a massive chunk of the tax revenue the Government assumed would keep flowing into its coffers has simply dried up, mainly because the golden goose that was the City is no longer so prodigious.
Is Obama Gorbachev?
by James Howard Kunstler for ClusterFuck Nation
THE EULOGY FOR WALTER CRONKITE as “the most trusted man in America” on the CBS “Sixty Minutes” show said a lot about the condition of this nation – though it did not signify what CBS thought it did. It wasn’t about the death of one hugely esteemed individual; it was about the broad institutional failure of TV news in general and the current grievous loss of legitimacy and authority in shaping a national consensus of reality. Watching the old clips of Cronkite delivering the evening news years ago, one couldn’t help weighing the contrast with the current spectacle of snide, combative, overbearing idiocy acted out nightly by the likes of Kudlow, Olberman, Kneale, O’Reilly, Matthews, and Dobbs as they shout down their invited guest commentators, pander to their demographic, and diss their rivals for ratings.
It was instructive to notice that the program following “Sixty Minutes” – in the supreme weekly slot of 8p.m. Sunday – was a childish and stupid “reality” show called “Big Brother.” This said even more about the craven quality of the people currently running CBS. It was also a useful lesson in the diminishing returns of technology as applied to television, since it should now be obvious that the expansion of cable broadcasting since the heyday of the “big three” networks has led only to the mass replication of video garbage rather than a banquet of culture, as first touted.
The United States is in Deep Doodoo!
by Michael Rivero
Aurick says: This superb article was first written in 1998. I am posting it here not so much as to say “The author told you so”, but to point out that the long term economic future of the United States was obvious, or should have been obvious, to the people who are awarded lofty degrees and paid huge salaries to comprehend such things. Instead, the economists persisted in explaining away the visible signs of gathering troubles and earned their salaries by justifying why the policies that robbed the poor to give to the rich should continue unabated.
I should also mention that the current general public consensus regarding the economic disaster unfolding around us is that “it all began with subprime and irresponsible lending by the banks”. No, it did not. It began many years before, and had nothing to do with housing bubbles or banks.
Click on the link to go straight there, or else locate it under the sidebar Pages, on the right of the screen: https://quantumpranx.wordpress.com/the-united-states-is-in-deep-doodoo/
There’s nothing left to recover
by Paul Craig Roberts
WHAT ECONOMY? There is no economy left to recover. The US manufacturing economy was lost to offshoring and free trade ideology. It was replaced by a mythical “New Economy.”
The “New Economy” was based on services. Its artificial life was fed by the Federal Reserve’s artificially low interest rates, which produced a real estate bubble, and by “free market” financial deregulation, which unleashed financial gangsters to new heights of debt leverage and fraudulent financial products.
The real economy was traded away for a make-believe economy. When the make-believe economy collapsed, Americans’ wealth in their real estate, pensions, and savings collapsed dramatically while their jobs disappeared.
The debt economy caused Americans to leverage their assets. They refinanced their homes and spent the equity. They maxed out numerous credit cards. They worked as many jobs as they could find. Debt expansion and multiple family incomes kept the economy going.
And now suddenly Americans can’t borrow in order to spend. They are over their heads in debt. Jobs are disappearing. America’s consumer economy, approximately 70% of GDP, is dead. Those Americans who still have jobs are saving against the prospect of job loss. Millions are homeless. Some have moved in with family and friends; others are living in tent cities.
Meanwhile the US government’s budget deficit has jumped from $455 billion in 2008 to $2,000 billion this year, with another $2,000 billion on the books for 2010. And President Obama has intensified America’s expensive war of aggression in Afghanistan and initiated a new war in Pakistan.
There is no way for these deficits to be financed except by printing money or by further collapse in stock markets that would drive people out of equity into bonds.
On foundation of lies, recovery is impossible
by Rick Ackerman
July 8, 2009
GOLD CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH in the midst of oil’s nasty selloff. Although August crude has fallen more than 14%, from last Tuesday’s peak of $73.38, a Comex Gold futures contract expiring the same month lost just 2.5% of its value during the same period, falling from $947 to $924. The fact that gold has not plummeted in sympathy with oil strongly hints that it will be quite feisty when selling in the oil pits finally lets up. It was triggered by fears that the alleged global economic recovery is much weaker than had been thought. One might have expected investors to be prepared for this turn of events, but apparently not. The selling of oil began in earnest in connection with an uptick in job losses reported last week by the Department of Labor, and a 0.1 increase in the U.S. unemployment rate. But it has snowballed since, lending weight to the notion that investors really were surprised by signs of renewed weakness in the U.S. economy.
The jobs data could not have surprised anyone who has shared anecdotes about the economy with friends, neighbors or colleagues. However, it would seem that the government’s statisticians and spinmeisters are in a warp that rules out such evidence. But then, why would they even want to consider the big picture if it undermines the government’s aggressive efforts to convince us that the economy is bouncing back? This is evidently what we are suppose to infer, based on data as ephemeral as a weekly report on California home prices. Granted, they are not falling as steeply as before; but California is itself in a state of financial and economic collapse, and that should more than suffice to quell all of the inane happy-talk.
Just Look Around You
Unfortunately, we can see no end to the nation’s economic miseries. To the contrary, the lies that we are being asked to believe about a recovery that exists only faintly in statistics can only impair the economy’s ability to right itself. Whatever the statistics, and however the Obama Administration tries to spin them, nearly all Americans recognize how grave our problems are. They have seen their retirement dreams go up in smoke, and they know that they won’t be able to borrow against home equity to put their kids through college.
They also understand that the middle class faces huge tax increases to pay for President Obama’s grandiose plans, and they know that healthcare costs are spiraling beyond the threshold of affordability – not only for individuals and employers, but for a U.S. Government that has the brazen nerve to tell us healthcare will somehow cost less when the government takes it over completely.
Until we get past all of these lies there can be no hope whatsoever for an economic resurgence.