Archive for July 2010
from The Daily Crux
“Dear Daily Crux reader,
This week’s interview concerns one of the most unusual subjects in the financial markets. Because it’s time-sensitive, we aren’t publishing at our normal time. Our guest this week is an investment advisor who has been writing his newsletter for over 30 years. He was named the #1 market timer for 2008 and 2009 by the Hulbert Financial Digest, which ranks over 500 investment newsletters. His name is Arch Crawford.
He has been writing his Crawford Perspectives advisory since 1977 – and has been profiled in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Forbes, Barron’s, Kiplinger’s, and dozens of other publications around the world. He’s shared his insights on CNBC, the Nightly Business Report, Good Morning America, and ABC’s 20/20. Crawford is on record for predicting some of the most important events in recent history, including the 1987 stock market crash, the beginning of the gold’s historic rally, and the September 11 terrorist attacks.
And about that “unusual” bit? Arch Crawford uses astrology to time his market calls. He recently caused a stir by making some shocking predictions for the near future… beginning as early as this Friday, July 30th. Skeptical? So are we… which is why we sat down with Mr. Crawford to get his controversial take. Read on for the full story. Good investing, Justin Brill, Managing Editor, The Daily Crux
The Daily Crux Sunday Interview:
We’ve never seen anything like this summer: An interview with Arch Crawford
The Daily Crux: Mr. Crawford, you’ve made a name for yourself as one of the best market timers over the past 30 years, using a combination of traditional technical analysis and some rather unusual techniques. For readers who may not be familiar with your work, can you tell us a little bit about yourself and how you developed your unique approach to the markets?
Arch Crawford: Well, I first got interested in the stock market when I was about 13 years old and I put my first trade on when I was 14. I was keeping up with all the stocks under $10. I started with stocks in the As and Bs. I never got through the Cs because there were a lot of them way back then. After high school, I went to the University of North Carolina studying math and physics. I was spending too much time over at the library looking up stock market stuff and my grade point average began to suffer. So I figured before my grades dropped through a “major support level” – to use a market analogy – I should just go ahead and do what I really wanted to do. So I left there and went to work for Merrill Lynch in Raleigh, North Carolina.
My job was marking stock prices up on the chalk board. I liked it so much, I said, “This is great! This is what I want to do with my life. Send me to New York!” They just laughed at me. But one of the brokers there got me the book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and McGee, which was sort of the bible of that kind of analysis. Merrill Lynch used to get the trend line charts each week. They would have charts for about 600 stocks, and they would come in every Monday for the previous week. I would get them and draw all the lines of support and resistance and trend lines and all that. Then I would look at them the next week and see if they did what I thought they would do, and if not I’d try to figure out why.
So I was sort of self-taught in technical analysis. About six months later I thought I had learned enough, so I told Merrill I was going to quit, and move to New York to look for a job. They said, “Don’t do that. We’ll transfer you.” So, when I was 20 years old, I got on a bus and went to New York City. I think they upped my pay from about $55 a week to $70 or $75 a week. I went right up into the research department and I was actually drawing the charts for their fundamental analysts. Those analysts didn’t have any interest in technicals, but they wanted to see weekly charts of their stocks back years and years. I kept them up to date so they’d have an idea of the general market direction of the stocks they followed. There were 45 industry specialists, so that was about 400 charts in all. That alone would take until about noon on Wednesday each week.
At nights, I made friends with the Merrill Lynch librarian and would spend until midnight running 10-day moving averages on every figure coming out in the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s, learning which ones were too similar and which ones were unique in the type of information. The technical guy at Merrill Lynch at the time was Robert Farrell. He later became the most famous and best-regarded technical analyst on Wall Street. He saw that I was really interested in working hard at it, and he took me on as his first-ever assistant. I worked there with him for three and a half years. In those days, technical market analysis was regarded a lot like astrology is today. They stuck our office down a long, empty hallway that dog-legged off to the left. It was down past the telephone switching room. If you didn’t know we were there, you sure wouldn’t come looking for us.
When I had been there for a couple of months, I made a call that there would be a crash the next year – in early 1962 – and I said if the pattern I saw stayed symmetrical, the top would be in the middle of December 1961. Well it did stay balanced out, and the market topped on the 13th of December. It continued to trace out a head and shoulders pattern, and it broke down through the neckline of the pattern on the day that Kennedy made the steel companies roll back a price increase. That’s what actually caused the crash. It was never an economic crash. It was just political – Wall Street punishing Kennedy. [Laughter]. I made a bunch of money on put options on that crash. After I left Merrill, I started my own business as an advisor. Later I was a trader, and I was a stock broker for a short time, a year and a half maybe. I never wanted to be a stock broker. Then I started my newsletter in 1977.
Submitted by Tyler Durden
Posted on Zero Hedge July 21, 2010
MATT SIMMONS SHARES SOME STARTLING REVELATIONS IN HIS LATEST BLOOMBERG TV INTERVIEW, in which he says none of the propaganda matters on TV 24/7 (photoshopped or not) as the ultimate clean up cost will likely be well over $1 trillion, and a result he is unconcerned about his BP short. He ultimately see the stock going down to $1.
What Simmons alleges however is far more startling and audacious: that this is a joint cover up effort between the administration and BP, in which both entities keep throwing sand in the eyes of observers while distracting everyone from the matter at hand: “What we don’t know anything about is the open hole which is caused by the drill bit when it tossed the blow-out preventer way out of the hole…and 120,000/day minimum of toxic poison has now covered the floor of the Gulf of Mexico. So what they’re talking about is the biggest environmental cover-up ever. And they knew that that well, that riser, would finally deplete. And then they could say it’s over.”
On blaming the catastrophe on Transocean: “For two days they kept saying it’s a rig fire. When the rig sank they could no longer call it a rig fire. It’s a riser leak… Because if they said the truth they would all go to jail.” The conclusion: “Unfortunately, we now have killed the Gulf of Mexico.”
On whether the well pressure should be a concern:
“No, it’s a total diversion – that’s the gas condensation that was trapped in the drilling riser which blew off the wellhead at 10:01 PM CT on April 20th, it’s a mile-long compressed natural gas.” ”What we don’t know anything about is the open hole which is caused by the drill bit when it tossed the blow-out preventer way out of the hole… and 120,000 minimum of toxic poison has now covered the floor of the Gulf of Mexico. So what they’re talking about is the biggest environmental cover-up ever. And they knew that that well, that riser, would finally deplete. And then they could say it’s over. And unfortunately, we now have killed the Gulf of Mexico.”