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Archive for April 2009

The Bear Market Surprise

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By Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning
San Diego, California, Posted April 6, 2009 

“People in this country don’t realize how bad things can be,” said Richard Russell on Saturday night. “I lived through the Great Depression. I remember people standing in bread lines. It was hard to get a job, any job, back then. But now, you see the restaurants are still full. People are still spending money. They may be worried and they may be beginning to save, but there’s no sense of urgency. And there’s a rally on Wall Street. You know, every bear market produces a rally. You can expect the market to retrace its steps by one- to two-thirds.

“And every bear market has a surprise. I think the surprise is that this is going to be a lot worse than people expect.”

Richard Russell is 84. He’s been writing his investment newsletter, Dow Theory Letters, for 50 years. This weekend a group of his admirers, including your editor, came together to say thanks. There are a lot of people with opinions on the economy and the stock market. You can hardly turn on your computer without getting dozens of them. But there are not many opinions with the depth of experience and knowledge behind them as those of Richard Russell. He’s been studying “the language of the markets” for more than half a century. Though no one ever fully masters the language of the market, Richard can at least carry on a conversation with it.

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Obama’s hot seat and the reappearance of swine flu

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By Darryl Robert Schoon
28 April 2009   www.drschoon.com

ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT OBAMA has not yet challenged Wall Street, other powerful interest groups see the President as a threat; and, the unexpected reappearance of swine flu may, in fact, be the result of a failed attempt to eliminate Obama and his mandate of change.

On April 25th, Bloomberg reported: Mexico’s Calderon Declares Emergency Amid Swine Flu Outbreak: The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported.

To understand the possibility that the reappearance of swine flu in Mexico may have resulted from a botched attempt to assassinate President Obama, it is first necessary to understand the origins of swine flu and its curious connection to the US Army.

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Written by aurick

30/04/2009 at 11:55 am

Cancer: Vitamin D in a New Light

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by Donald W. Miller, Jr., MD
September 10, 2007

This article is important enough to justify being posted here as well as in the permanent Pages sidebar (on right of screen). Is this another example of vital medical information being sidelined to favour the profits of the major pharmaceuticals?

THERE ARE THIRTEEN VITAMINS humans need for growth and development and to maintain good health. The human body cannot make these essential bio-molecules. They must be supplied in the diet or by bacteria in the intestine, except for vitamin D. Skin makes vitamin D when exposed to ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation from the sun. A light-skinned person will synthesize 20,000 IU (international units) of vitamin D in 20 minutes sunbathing on a Caribbean beach.

Vitamin D is also unique in another way. It is the only vitamin that is a hormone, a type of steroid hormone known as a secosteroid, with three carbon rings.

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The capital well is running dry

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By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Posted 26 April 2009

THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT of capital and some economies will wither. We cannot take it for granted that the global bond markets will prove deep enough to fund the $6 trillion or so needed for the Obama fiscal package, US-European bank bail-outs, and ballooning deficits almost everywhere.

Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default. Traders already whisper that some governments are buying their own debt through proxies at bond auctions to keep up illusions – not to be confused with transparent buying by central banks under quantitative easing. This cannot continue for long.

Commerzbank said every European bond auction is turning into an “event risk”. Britain too finds itself some way down the AAA pecking order as it tries to sell £220bn of Gilts this year to irascible investors, astonished by 5% deficits into the middle of the next decade.

US hedge fund Hayman Advisers is betting on the biggest wave of state bankruptcies and restructurings since 1934. The worst profiles are almost all in Europe – the epicentre of leverage, and denial. As the IMF said last week, Europe’s banks have written down 17pc of their losses – American banks have swallowed half.

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You are Dreaming

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by Montalk
Posted 20 January 2003

Are you asleep or awake? What about people you interact with daily? Most will answer that they are awake, and that those around them are awake as well. It’s a simple question with an easily determined answer, or so it seems.

Not all is as it seems. Rather than two states of being, there are at least four. The mind and body can be asleep or awake independently of each other.

With mind and body awake, one is truly awake. With mind and body asleep, one is dreaming. With mind awake and body asleep, one is lucid-dreaming.With mind asleep and body awake, one is sleepwalking. Gradations exist between these four states, ranging from hypnotism and trance to daydreaming and dim consciousness.

The common understanding of what it means to be “awake” disguises the truth. In truth, most who call themselves awake are actually not awake at all. They are either hypnotized, dimly conscious, sleepwalking, daydreaming, or in a state of trance. What all these states have in common is that the conscious core of the individual is absent or passive, blowing like a leaf in the winds of environmental stimuli.

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The Collapse of ‘The Great American Ponzi Scheme’

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By Lorimer Wilson, 17 Apr 2009


MANY AMERICANS, and indeed many people the world over, have lived in a Ponzi bubble economy for more than a decade. The American economy, for one, became a house of cards of leverage over leverage by households, financial firms and corporations that has now gone bust.

A Ponzi bubble? Yes, after Charles Ponzi, a Bostonian with an eye for get-rich quick schemes who, back in 1918, identified an arbitrage situation which he promoted as being able to generate sizeable returns for those who invested with him. He delivered on his promise by making his close friends and a small circle of investors very rich, very quickly, and, as word spread among the wealthier citizens of Boston, they began lining up to invest. Regretfully, when anything looks too good to be true, it probably is and it was. As a result of his infamy his name has been immortalized to describe any fraudulent investment scheme where the money from later investors is used to pay the early investors and so on right up until the moment the whole thing collapses on itself. Sound familiar? Yes, 90 years later the 50 billion dollar Madoff pyramid collapsed – a Ponzi scheme if ever there was one! Now may well be the time to lay the Ponzi name to rest and replace it with the infamous word ‘Madoff.’ Time will tell.

But Ponzi and Madoff were not the only ‘investors’ who were conning those around them. We must not forget the tens of millions of Americans who were participating in ‘The Great American Ponzi Scheme’ or, as some would more accurately characterize it, deploying their own ‘greater fool theory” that there was really nothing to worry about because there always would be a ‘greater fool’ than them out there somewhere who would still lend them money, buy their over-priced house, over-valued stocks, etc. to keep their financial house of cards from collapsing. Below is my edited, paraphrased and enhanced version of how Nouriel Roubini once described it:

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Written by aurick

24/04/2009 at 10:24 pm

Psychic Pollution

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From New Civilisation Network, posted January 14th 2004

“I will carry my gods within me, swallow my divinity whole. The responsibily that clarity unveils… as I become the face of my soul.”

Psychic pollution spread by the popular media in the form of newspapers, television and advertising is toxic and detrimental to our divinity. We are sensitive instruments and our vibrationary level/frequency is affected by our observations. Like a tuning fork we tend to vibrationally attune to the object/subject of our observations. “News” is everything that you could possibly think of and is “happening” somewhere on this planet.

The news that is reported is bits of usually negative stuff that we are implicitly told is newsworthy. We then observe, reinforce and strengthen by our observation and attention whatever the “news” happens to be. We are not usually told of all of the wonderful things that are happening every single second all over this planet too. It is our decision where our attention is focused, but there is a powerful and subtle pressure to pull our focus in certain directions. It makes a difference where our attention is focused, it makes a difference how we “vibrate”.

We hold the key to changing and helping to birth a new consciousness… the control panel lies within. Eliminate or reduce your exposure to TV (a powerful and addictive drug), to the “news”, to newspapers, to advertising, and take a few steps outside of “the consensual reality” and then look again. When you are within it you are attuned to it. Step outside and realise a new world lies within each of us but we must detach from the “programming” as that keeps us only able to access certain levels of consciousness. Mass reality has a ceiling… get above that and there is a vastly different view.

[Apologies to the original author: some editing was applied.]

Written by aurick

24/04/2009 at 8:25 am

The Domestic Tyrant

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by courtesy of John Scudamore, whose website Whale contains a huge archive of very important and relevant information, even more so than this!

This is when your partner indulges in anger. This could be for whatever reason, a petty irritation, a past unresolved conflict, or a passed down parent habit, and uses you as a kicking board.  This could build up over the years to two or more bollockings a day, from a mild rebuke or put-down to an out and out rant and rave. A Domestic Tyrant takes the saying ‘crying over spilt milk’ to heart and not only cries over trivia but runs the whole gamut of emotions. A helpful insight here is the saying (Werner Erhard probably) ‘Every upset is a set up’, meaning the Tyrant creates situations, through the subconscious mind, to get upset about.
Just realising the game going on is the first step out of it. You can see a Domestic Tyrant in the handwriting. There is absolutely no justifiable reason to use negative emotion in dialogue, to criticise rather than offer an observation, but try telling a Domestic Tyrant that!  It would blow the whole game.

“Beware of emotions. The emotional person is turned off sensually. His body is a churning robot.  Emotions are addictive, narcotic, and stupefacient. Moods such as sorrow and joy accompany emotions.  Like a junkie who has just connected, the emotional person feels good when he has scored emotionally, i.e., put someone down or been beaten down. Conscious love is not an emotion; it is the serene merging with yourself, with other people, with other forms of energy. Love cannot exist in an emotional state. Emotions are emergency alarms. The pre-social wily-animal god of emotion-locomotion resides within our nervous system, ready to pour out flight-fight endocrine juices (p.97).”— T. Leary

Written by aurick

17/04/2009 at 10:12 am

The Coming Siege of Austerity

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by James Howard Kunstler

Saratoga Springs, New York, posted in The Daily Reckoning, 16 April 2009

The American people and financial media remain poised to jump on any piece of economic data that points to a ‘recovery’ for the U.S. economy. But this begs the question, says James Kunstler, below, a recovery to what? Read on…

IT’S A CURIOUS SYMPTOM of the consensus trance zombifying the American public and its auditors in the media that something like a “recovery” is now deemed to be underway. And, as events compel me to repeat in this space, it begs the question: recovery to what? To Wall Street booking stupendous profits by laundering “risk” out of bad loans with new issues of tranche-o-matic securitized paper? This I doubt, since there isn’t a pension fund left from San Jose to Bratislava that would touch this stuff with a stick, even if it could be turned out in collector’s editions of boxed sets. 

Does it mean that American “consumers” (so-called) are awaited momentarily in the flat-screen TV sales parlors with their credit cards fanned-out like poker hands, ready for “action?” Not too likely with massive non-performance out in cardholder-land, and half the nation’s electronics inventory wending its way onto Craig’s List. Are we expecting more asteroid belts of new suburbs carved in the loamy outlands of Dallas and Minneapolis, complete with new highway strips of Big Box shopping and Chuck E. Cheeses? Go to banking’s intensive care unit and inquire (if you can) among the flat-lining production home- builders and the real estate investment trusts on life support when they expect to rev up the heavy equipment.

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Written by aurick

17/04/2009 at 9:57 am

Truth Analysis

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This article describes the reasoning process I use to write most of the articles on this site. The process is based on two axioms:

  1. truth is not subjective
  2. truth never contradicts itself

Because truth is not subjective, some ideas are more objective than others. This means that no matter what your worldview is, it can always be improved to be more objective. It shows that there is indeed something to strive for.

The idea that truth never contradicts itself is a very powerful axiom. Lies can be internally consistent as well, but a mixture of truth and lies will show contradictions. You can use this principle to discover what’s true and what’s false. Here’s what I mean:

It is difficult to tell if any single idea is true or false, just like it is difficult to tell which of two similar puzzles a single puzzle piece belongs to. But a large collection of non-contradicting ideas will reveal whether the entire collection is true or false. The larger the collection, the easier it is to see. You start with one ambiguous puzzle piece, find others that fit onto it, and soon you can tell which of the two puzzles you’ve put together.

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