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Archive for August 2009

Is Wall Street Ready for Obama’s Fall?

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Is Wall Street Ready for Obama’s Fall?
by Rick Ackerman – August 10, 2009
The stock market’s powerful bear rally, now five month’s old, has fed on false hopes and delusional thinking, but it is unlikely to survive the coming collapse of the Obama presidency. Mr. Obama’s once-overwhelming popularity, though ebbing, has so far survived the voters’ growing discontent with his policies. However, disapproval is mounting, even on the political left, and it’s going to reach critical mass once the president’s ill-conceived plan for a government takeover of the healthcare system has gone down in flames. He will become a lame-duck president after less than a year in office, leaving the country rudderless at a time when the economy and financial system are desperately in need of a firm hand or at least the appearance that someone is in command. Investors had better prepare for the inevitable darkening of America’s mood, since its effect on the stock market will not be pretty. It is often said that Wall Street abhors nothing so much as uncertainty, but this will be far worse – a plunge into despair or even chaos that will make the nation’s depressing wallow during the Carter years seem sunny in comparison.
His Brazen Lie
Concerning Obamacare, its failure to gain traction goes much deeper than Hillarycare’s abortive flop in 1993, early in Clinton’s term. In the interim, healthcare costs have inflated so horrifically that Americans have become desperate for relief. For businesses and individuals alike, health care has become increasingly unaffordable, and all of us are paying much more each year for less coverage. That should have made socialized health care an easy sell. Instead, Obama chose to remake the system so radically and so ambitiously that almost no one believes him when he says that it won’t cost us – except for “the rich” — any more than we are paying now. Americans see Obama’s spin on this issue for what it is: a brazen lie. They also understand that he cannot possibly extract from “the rich” alone the trillions of dollars the government is spending in an already-failed attempt to avoid a ruinous debt deflation.
Fat Cats
As a result, it is predictable that many of Obama’s supporters on the left will abandon him. This seems likely to occur sooner rather than later now that stories have begun to emerge that make clear how it is mainly fat-cat bankers who have benefited from all of the supposed rescue packages.  Last week’s news that nine big banks paid out $33 billion in bonuses in 2008 when the banks were collapsing is going to galvanize Obama’s opposition in Congress, making his “cap-and-trade” energy tax dead-on-arrival, and rendering all of his other grandiose, statist schemes politically dead. This is going to throw the presidency – and the nation – into a state of uncertainty that Wall Street will not be able to abide. If the stock market is indeed looking ahead six months, the bear rally begun in March should approaching its last hurrah.

by Rick Ackerman
Posted originally August 10, 2009

THE STOCK MARKET’S POWERFUL BEAR rally, now five month’s old, has fed on false hopes and delusional thinking, but it is unlikely to survive the coming collapse of the Obama presidency. Mr. Obama’s once-overwhelming popularity, though ebbing, has so far survived the voters’ growing discontent with his policies. However, disapproval is mounting, even on the political left, and it’s going to reach critical mass once the president’s ill-conceived plan for a government takeover of the healthcare system has gone down in flames.

He will become a lame-duck president after less than a year in office, leaving the country rudderless at a time when the economy and financial system are desperately in need of a firm hand or at least the appearance that someone is in command. Investors had better prepare for the inevitable darkening of America’s mood, since its effect on the stock market will not be pretty. It is often said that Wall Street abhors nothing so much as uncertainty, but this will be far worse – a plunge into despair or even chaos that will make the nation’s depressing wallow during the Carter years seem sunny in comparison.

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That Sinking Feeling

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That Sinking Feeling
by Achal Mehra
Recently by Gerald Celente: The 2nd American Revolution
The steady drumbeat of good news is getting infectious. The Dow Jones has rallied almost 40 percent from its bottom on March 9. The Federal Reserve expects the economy to pick up in the second half of this year. Home sales rose 11% in June and corporate profits strengthened in the second quarter. Pres. Barack Obama has signaled signs of “green shoots” on the economic landscape. Alan Blinder, the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, recently pronounced in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, “The Economy Has Hit Bottom.” The Aug. 3 cover story in Newsweek went even further, declaring boldly, “The Recession is Over.”
But before you get giddy, several economists caution that we may be witnessing a false lull before the storm, that the temporary economic boost is propelled by the nearly $1 trillion infusion of government bailout money to financial institutions and the economic stimulus package. They fear that we are on the verge of a double dip recession and that the second recession could be longer and deeper.
A handful of prominent investment and trend analysts and scholars are decidedly alarmist, even projecting a depression that will rival the Great Depression of 1929. Gerald Celente, founder of The Trends Research Institute, which the Los Angeles Times once described as the “Standard and Poors of Popular Culture,” forecasts “Food riots, tax protests, farmer rebellions, student revolts, squatter digins, homeless uprisings, tent cities, ghost malls, general strikes, bossnappings, kidnappings, industrial saboteurs, gang warfare, mob rule, terror” by 2012 in the latest edition of The Trends Journal.
Truth is, economic forecasting is a hazardous business even in less rockier times. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently quipped at a public town hall, “Economic forecasting makes weather forecasting look like physics.” These days many economic indicators are defying both logic and historical patterns. It is the reason why, despite many reassuring economic signals in recent weeks, national anxiety remains palpable.
To gauge the view from the other side, Little India turned to Celente and three other prominent advocates of the counter intuitive perspective: investor advocate Martin Weiss, author of New York Times bestseller, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide; economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, author of another New York Times bestseller The Great Depression Ahead; and Southern Methodist University economist Ravi Batra, author of The New Golden Age: The Coming Revolution Against Political Corruption and Economic Chaos.
Still Got Two Eyes
Trends analyst Gerald Celente, founder of The Trends Research Institute and publisher of The Trends Journal, built his reputation by accurately predicting the 1987 stock market crash, the 1997 Asian economic crisis and the “Panic of ’08.” He has attracted both attention and ire in recent months with his increasingly dire projections, which he titled as “Obamageddon.”
In the latest The Trends Journal you make very dire predictions of tent cities, food riots and tax rebellion by 2012. Do you still envisage conditions will be as bad as you were projecting?
Economists now predicting recovery are the same people that were saying recession wasn’t here even when we were in recession. Go back to the campaign in 2008, they didn’t start talking about the recession until the Fall of 2008 even though the recession began in December 2007.
These are the same people talking about green shoots a couple of months ago and as you go back to the beginning of the year, they said we would be in recovery by second quarter of 2009. The Obama administration, which began with a stimulus package, had estimated that without the stimulus package, unemployment in 2009 would be at 8%. We had a stimulus package and unemployment is at 9.5%. They had also said that they would create by mid-year 600,000 jobs and we lost 2.5 million. At best, at best, they saved 150,000. All their forecasts are wrong. There is nothing they have forecast economically that has come to pass.
But the improving signs of bank profits and new financial earnings reports, don’t give you hope?
Let’s look at the bank reports. We know that hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money has been given to the banks and they refuse (this is like fiction), to tell the people (the taxpayer) who gave them money, where the money went, how they are spending it.
If you gave me, as they gave Goldman Sachs, $13 billion to cover losses with AIG – 100% coverage of losses – converting Goldman Sachs from a brokerage firm to a bank holding company, giving them access to $10 billion, plus all the loans and benefits they are giving them at discount prices, could you show a profit? These are profits that are pumped up by bailouts, rescue packages and stimulus plans. Yesterday the market went up because Caterpillar showed better earnings than they had thought, or rather losses less severe. They are not better off; their profits are off 66%. Who in the real world wouldn’t call that depression level results? I would consider that atrocious. What you didn’t have a 77% decline? Oh, you only lost one arm and a leg, but you still got your two eyes and the use of one leg!
You have said this bailout bubble can be more lethal than the earlier bubbles. Can you explain?
In The Trends Journal in 2004 we predicted the great recession. We noticed it would happen. It was very easy to see that after the dot com crash in March 2000, rather than letting Wall Street take its $5 trillion worth of speculative losses that were built up by the dot com boom, the Federal Reserve began to lower the interest rates to 46-year lows. They created this borrow-and-spend mentality that was unprecedented in American history.
You want to buy a new house, borrow on your old one; with your new equity loan, you can build that new addition, go on a vacation, buy a new car, send your kids to school, go on a shopping spree. Your house is a piggy bank.
So housing as an asset became artificially inflated by the availability of historically cheap money rather than letting the bubble burst. With the bailout bubble, they have added $13 trillion worth of phantom money. This isn’t real money, it is phantom money printed out of thin air, based on nothing, backed by nothing. So they are creating a bubble, but when this financial/real estate bubble bursts, it is worse than the dot com bubble, because now government has an equity position in these companies, and they have government executive powers and management controls. This is unheard of in American history. This used to be the entrepreneurial empire of the world, that so much of the world respected and revered as the capital of entrepreneurism. No more.
You developed a fair amount of credibility in the media with your previously accurate predictions. But some of the things you are saying sound shrill. Do you really believe it will be as extreme as you are saying or are you trying to pierce through the clutter of the positive blather?
Not at all. We take what they are saying to be extreme. How could people believe these people when everything they said is wrong. If you can show me they are right here, I’ll say fine, we’re only humans, we all make mistakes. But we can say with all certainty, and we say it over and over again, you cannot print phantom money out of thin air based on nothing, backed by nothing without destroying the economy. Look at Brazil, India, China, Russia, the BRIC countries, they all talk now about another reserve currency.
But when you say food riots, tent cities and tax rebellions?
Tax rebellions, let’s take that. Go back to 2007, we wrote about tax revolts when George Bush was president. We saw this coming. Current events inform future trends. They are squeezing the people at every level. Look at what is happening in California. Tax rebellion is already happening. They are trying to downplay them when tea parties and tax protests happen. This hasn’t happened in America before in my lifetime. And now they are commonplace. They happened in April and again on the 4th of July. This is just the beginning. Food riots, oh yes. When people get hungry, when they have nothing to eat, you are going to see a lot of ugly scenes happen in America.
What would you project the unemployment rate to be at end of 2009 and end of 2010?
It will probably be heading towards 11% by end 2009 and by 2010 it could well be into 12–13%.
Where would you project the Dow Jones?
We don’t know. The Dow Jones is a different game. It can go in any kind of direction. When you go to the Great Depression, you saw the Dow Jones improving. It is not an economic indicator, it is a casino.
When do you expect housing prices to bottom out?
It could be many years. It could be a decade. There are two buying seasons in America, Spring and Fall, period, paragraph. Spring buying season was a bust and Fall does not look any better. It is very dismal for the future.
Do you think our money is safe in U.S. banks?
We don’t give investment advice. I tell you what I do. I am a big believer in gold and I think Indians like gold. I hedge my money. In my business I need cash, so I spread it between euros and dollars, knowing that if euros go up, dollars go down, so I have parity. That is the investment strategy for right now, it is not to take risk, it’s wealth preservation….
We are looking at mid-August for some dire economic news. In the event there is dire economic news, there are more financial collapses, there is a probability that they may call a bank holiday. It is not unprecedented, it has been done in America before, Pres. Franklin Roosevelt did it .… So are banks safe? It is not a question, are banks safe; it is a question, will they call a bank holiday, which they have done before? If they do, you will be restricted on how much money you can get out. They have done it in Argentina and other countries. Yes, you can get your money out, it’s FDIC insured. You just can’t get it out all at once and it may be devalued.
What do you do with your investments and retirement accounts?
I don’t have any. My investments are in the property and real estate I own. My retirement is all in gold.
What can people do to minimize their employment and other financial risks?
This whole mentality, this American mantra to shop until you drop, what kind of sick thinking is that? The businesses that we believe are going to make it in this new climate are going to be ones that accentuate quality – less is more. In our study, the very best company that we see are the ones whose profits are down between 25–30%, that’s the best. The worst are down 70% .…
The other thing to consider is, why are you sending your child to college for an MBA, or a degree in communications, journalism, art, history? As an economist what is going to be the return on the investment? The college industrial complex is going to be one of the major economic collapses in the United States. They are producing students, retraining people for jobs that don’t exist. So unless you are in specialty fields in high-tech, health, engineering, alternative fuels, or smart areas that have more productive usage of resources, outside of those fields, the soft arts are going to be losers.
This country was built not on a mantra of shop until you drop. It was called Yankee frugality: use it up, wear it out, make it do, do without. Those are the kinds of things that need to be considered again.
At this stage what do you think are the greatest risks to the U.S. and the global economy?
The greatest risk on the economic end is the collapse of the U.S. dollar. That is the greatest risk that we see, because America has the ability to destroy the global financial system with these unprecedented bailouts, stimulus and rescue packages. Whoever heard of this before? They are jeopardizing the global economy. It is not saving it, it is jeopardizing it.
Trends 2000
Gerald Celente
Buy New $17.81
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Are there other disruptive forces as well?
We are only looking at economic issues. Back in 2001, President Bush’s popularity rating was as low as President Obama’s is now. It was declining rapidly. I even remember word for word, because I was writing about it, what the American media were talking about. There was this Congressman Gary Condit and his aide, a young girl Chandra Levy, who was missing, and shark attacks. That was the news, that is all they were talking about in the summer of 2001 and Bush was off on vacation in Crawford, Tex., for months as America was still suffering from the fallout of the dotcom bubble burst.
Then all of a sudden on Sept. 11 the whole game changed. The war on terror began and Bush’s popularity skyrocketed. The same thing can happen here. Any wild card could happen and change the game at a minute’s notice and deflect people’s attention away from an economic policy failure, an economic policy that is doomed to fail.
Do you envisage that as conditions worsen, immigrants could face a backlash?
I don’t care what country it is, immigration is going to be a major issue because there is not going to be enough wealth to go around under the current system.
Do you know that the anti-marijuana laws in America grew mostly out of the Great Depression and they blamed the Mexican immigrants for all the heinous crime. They trumped up the problem and blamed it on the immigrants. They made it an immigrant issue, which had absolutely no foundation at all, either the danger of smoking marijuana or the problem being caused by the Mexicans. But they blamed it on the Mexican immigrants and it was used as a pretext to have very severe anti-immigrant laws in place and they were of course also blaming them for undercutting the economy. So these trends are old. It’s just a new time and a new phase.
Do you think either political party could have made a difference?
No, it is like watching the World Wrestling Federation. They pretend to be arch-enemies on the stage. After the cameras go off, they do their deals together. There is very little difference between the two parties.
This is reprinted from Little India.
August 19, 2009
Gerald Celente is founder and director of The Trends Research Institute, author of Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books), and publisher of The Trends Journal. He has been forecasting trends since 1980, and recently called “The Collapse of ’09.”

by Achal Mehra
Reprinted from Little India, August 19, 2009

THE STEADY DRUMBEAT OF GOOD NEWS is getting infectious. The Dow Jones has rallied almost 40 percent from its bottom on March 9. The Federal Reserve expects the economy to pick up in the second half of this year. Home sales rose 11% in June and corporate profits strengthened in the second quarter. Pres. Barack Obama has signaled signs of “green shoots” on the economic landscape. Alan Blinder, the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, recently pronounced in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, “The Economy Has Hit Bottom.” The August 3rd cover story in Newsweek went even further, declaring boldly, “The Recession is Over.”

But before you get giddy, several economists caution that we may be witnessing a false lull before the storm, that the temporary economic boost is propelled by the nearly $1 trillion infusion of government bailout money to financial institutions and the economic stimulus package. They fear that we are on the verge of a double dip recession and that the second recession could be longer and deeper.

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Illumination of The Idiots (Part II)

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Illumination of The Idiots (Part II)
By Roger Wiegand        
Aug 17 2009 3:24PM
A list of ultra-stupid moves and counter moves destroying the economies and consumers world-wide collected and remarked upon by Traderrog
Health Care: Ignoring and insulting elderly voter’s at the most recent town hall meetings on health care discussions created anger and confusion. Sharp observers who have taken the time to read proposals see nothing but disaster. The worst features are: (1) Robbing 500mm from Medicare in a triage move to lessen care for the oldest based upon cost and, (2) Moving to a single payer system destroying 85% of the coverage for recipients now being covered by private insurance (3) Adding 50mm new participants from the lowest income sector (non-payers) overwhelming the system with demand as there are not enough medical staff to cope. Our forecast says the graybeards will vote out many of those up for re-election in fall 2010 in a massive backlash. Further, this fall, when the bill comes up for a vote, the markets will have crashed and this bill could be buried for good. This is the reason those in charge are pushing so hard to pass it quickly. After September 15th it’s too late. Rationing health care using bureaurats to decide who lives and who dies will not fly with voters-consumers.
Consumers Are Broke: Since consumers earn the money and pay the taxes to support all governments, when they are broken, their ability to support the bureaurats is broken, too. They can be overly taxed and abused to most any extent but when they are jobless and their employers are shut-down so are revenue streams to all governments. Central governments can last longer as they manufacture currencies and bonds out of thin air not having to balance budgets. On the more local level of states, counties, cities, towns and villages, by their law’s they have to balance budgets and they simply cannot.  Obviously some are in much worst shape than others like California, Nevada, and certain cities, but a tidal wave of failures is sweeping America drowning employment with remarkable and horrible speed. Those with cash and credit are saving for rainy days ahead. Credit is going nowhere as banks are afraid to lend and consumers-businesses (qualified) are afraid to borrow. Hunkering down and saving is the plan for most in an effort to survive. This is killing any growth and promoting further deterioration.
Cap ‘N’ Trade: Is another flagrantly stupid idea that increases the cost of energy, particularly electricity. It off-loads alleged carbon footprints via trading from one user to another creating a nightmare of abuses in the middle. The ignorant congress instead of dreaming-up new economy wrecking ideas to milk the system and steal more from the Sheeple should bend to the wishes of voting constituents and use some common sense. They will not and voters will respond at the polls. We expect Cap ‘N’ Trade to fail.
Global Warming: Our experienced Northern weather Advisor told me there are signs we enter the next ice age in 2040. The Midwestern US this summer has been extraordinarily cool. Other normally cooler places are warmer. Studies allegedly proving the onset of global warming are fraught with mistakes. Recently, we saw a report showing the Warming Idiots who wrote about this stuff have “missed” seeing an iceberg the size of Greenland (Brilliant!) in their computations. This is another scam to make money and buy votes while getting full control of the Sheeple. Expect much more ridiculous non-sense. Millionaire politicians like Al Gore shall remain busy seeking more scams to promote their phony agendas.
Corn Ethanol: Well, this one sure worked out well didn’t it? The corn-to-ethanol plants are going bankrupt, and that fuel has created untold amounts of damage in filling station pumps and certain cars as it wasted precious corn reserves and billions of gallons of precious clean water. Corn ethanol is just another government boondoggle gone wrong. Further, the economics do not work and it must be taxpayer subsidized to balance production budgets. Other water problems in California are destroying farms equal in size to the state of Rhode Island. This in an effort to save a non-descript 2 inch minnow fish. Millions of dollars of lost wages and grower damage ensue.
US Energy Drilling Denied: Shortages of energy; specifically oil and gas would be alleviated but not eliminated if offshore drilling and some banned onshore efforts were permitted. California could probably solve its budget crisis (at least temporarily until it wasted more new income) by allowing nearby ocean drilling for oil and gas. The greens are in charge so the state goes down the economic tubes with a huge smash. Similar opportunities exist for New Jersey, Florida and some other coastal states. We say no offshore drilling will be allowed until oil and gas goes critical. Then it takes ten more years to explore, drill and produce new reserves.
TARP Funding: Has been spent to repair bank balance sheets not lend for growth.  Global investment banks lost trillions with reckless lending (illegal?) practices and then got billions more in free TARP cash to replenish balance sheets. The taxpayers were hit twice. (1) First they are stuck with the aftermath of the messes from the reckless lending and, (2) They got robbed again with the TARP takings. This is why former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson insisted on bullet-proof legal documents in advance of handing out the money. Mr. Paulson is a crook acting as a shill for big bankers and most know it for sure. Some are now investigating.
Buying Way Out Of Deflation-Depression: Historically, no nation has been able to buy its way out of a depression. A critical assessment of FDR’s performance in the 1930’s proves this beyond a doubt. Further, others have written in depth about this problem-alleged solution and agree. The current administration continues down the same tried and true policy path to failure, replicating the 1930’s all over again.
Government Motors: With years to go in a depression and little or no consumer buying power do you really think GM also known as Government Motors can survive and sell cars? Will this work under the leadership thumb of government bureaurats? We say they sink into oblivion with Chrysler. We are hoping Ford can make it but they must sell cars to enable a viable company to continue. Who will buy the cars? Competition is fierce and competitors have the best products and no major overhang of debt as Ford does.
Tax Increases: We see new tax increases flying in from all sides. The over-spending government entities thinking good times roll forever spent the higher tax revenues from the inflated good times (cheap interest rates and bad lending) and now cannot cope with drastically lower tax payments from broken consumers and corporations.
Falling Tax Receipts: We’ve seen revenue reports saying tax payments fell 22% to 34% depending upon whether the discussion is federal taxes or others. California is a leading example with Jefferson County (City of Birmingham) Alabama being another. This cascades through America being more visible-critical in July, 2010.
California & States’ Bailouts: Are going critical. As states’ cascade into failures, they are reaching the tipping point. The president has said he will not help them. State employee lay-offs have begun in earnest as funds dry-up and the first waves of non-essential and some essential services are denied. Jefferson County Alabama including the large southern city of Birmingham are now at great risk. Authorities are expecting to call in the National Guard as fire and police are laid-off with no pay. Now, California is saying they will pay back their IOU’s due this fall. Where did the money come from all of a sudden?
Off-Shoring Manufacturing: Manufacturing, mostly shifted to Asia has contributed to 33% of USA manufacturing sitting idle. We see more dead and dying companies with jobless employees in the millions.
Social Help Too Slow: Food stamps are now provided for over 34mm Americans. As fast as the government is trying to provide help, the needy are demanding ever more. Food stamps are only one part of the equation. The next one is soaring utilities with consumers freezing to death this winter. There is also a chance of them suffering a killer heat wave yet this summer as when Chicago had over 700 heat-related deaths some years ago. It can happen again when the elderly cannot afford to run air conditioners.
Stock Market Is Not The Economy: The stock market has turned into giant crap game, for the most part manipulated by a few major hedge funds and global banks for their own ill-gotten gains and amusement. This fall, the Sheeple will once again be left holding an empty bag after the crash. Prior to, the pros will be out with their profits. Meanwhile, the economy must run on genuine credit and production. Both are sorely lacking.
Bonds & US Dollar: Are critical to America’s credit and potential economic resurrection. If the dollar crashes (and it will by at least 50%) most of the world is pegged to that currency and will collapse. Monetization of bonds and dollars (creation of credit out of thin air) is catching up to the administration. Somewhere ahead the buyers will stop buying valueless paper and then we sink into a larger collapse. The first stages could come this fall and one top analyst forecasts a bank run later this August when a new larger list of US bank failures is posted.
Other Currencies:  Have been proposed by Russia, and Middle Eastern oil producers. So far this has not worked as the US Dollar pool and bond markets are so incredibly large relative to other currencies. Escape from the clutches of American credit instruments and currency has failed. Hints of moving to the gold standard by several of these nations are interesting. But, we cannot understand how it can help despite, perhaps, having some very long term merit with no immediate healing results. Debts must be marked down to reality first and consumers need jobs and realistically priced house sales prices. This cannot happen for years.
Asian Stock Markets: And their economies are running on fumes. Shorting the Shanghai Index SSEC might be a good trade with stocks up nearly 80% this year and the PE’s reportedly running at 35, which is outrageous.
Unemployment in Europe: Is officially matching the USA with various jobless numbers between 9-10%. As we’ve reported before, if you double the official jobless stats you are closer to the real truth. Spain is very bad and the UK and Ireland are next in line with more of Eastern Europe going idle at a rapid clip.
Higher US Debt Limits: Are being considered, increasing them to new highs as requested by Geitner. These efforts are futile and merely add to the immensity of both current and forthcoming destruction.
Financials crashed in fall 2008 with Lehman. Recovery began with TARP May, 2009: During this month of August we have more of a dead cat bounce ahead with a big smash in Mid-September. While precious metals and their shares are off this August 17, 2009, for the intermediate term (next 90 days) the trend reverses and moves to rallies.
Keep in mind, if you own paid for stuff it will most likely remain in your hands; not in somebody else’s. That includes gold and silver.
Do not get tangled-up in daily noise. Keep studying the larger view and buy precious metals after each profit-taking correction. Headwinds are building into an economic hurricane. Take care of business right now. My dire fall prediction might surprise us and arrive earlier. Time is short.
Personally, I can see unbelievable opportunities to trade that we would never see again for many years. Turn these problems into opportunities. Those on the right side of the trade might get rich. Those on the other side are just victims. Stay Alert. – Traderrog

by Roger Wiegand
Posted originally Aug 17 2009
www.webeatthestreet.com

A LIST OF ULTRA-STUPID MOVES and counter moves destroying the economies and consumers world-wide collected and remarked upon by Traderrog.

Health Care: Ignoring and insulting elderly voter’s at the most recent town hall meetings on health care discussions created anger and confusion. Sharp observers who have taken the time to read proposals see nothing but disaster.

The worst features are: (1) Robbing 50m from Medicare in a triage move to lessen care for the oldest based upon cost and, (2) Moving to a single payer system destroying 85% of the coverage for recipients now being covered by private insurance. (3) Adding 50m new participants from the lowest income sector (non-payers) overwhelming the system with demand as there are not enough medical staff to cope. Our forecast says the graybeards will vote out many of those up for re-election in fall 2010 in a massive backlash.

Further, this fall, when the bill comes up for a vote, the markets will have crashed and this bill could be buried for good. This is the reason those in charge are pushing so hard to pass it quickly. After September 15th it’s too late. Rationing health care using bureaurats to decide who lives and who dies will not fly with voters-consumers.

Consumers Are Broke: Since consumers earn the money and pay the taxes to support all governments, when they are broken, their ability to support the bureaurats is broken, too. They can be overly taxed and abused to most any extent but when they are jobless and their employers are shut-down so are revenue streams to all governments. Central governments can last longer as they manufacture currencies and bonds out of thin air not having to balance budgets. On the more local level of states, counties, cities, towns and villages have to balance budgets and they simply cannot.

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How Quickly could the Dollar Collapse?

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How Quickly Could the Dollar Collapse?
BY RICK ACKERMAN ON AUGUST 20, 2009 1:07 AM GMT · 3 COMMENTS
We popped up on the “wrong” side of the inflation/deflation argument here the other day with a hyperinflation scenario that seems to us not just possible but likely. Although we hold fast to a prediction that deflation is going to run its course, throwing tens of millions of Americans into bankruptcy, before relief comes to debtors, we are persuaded that at some point well down the road the U.S. will throw the switch to hyperinflate.  Even so, we believe that the attendant collapse of the dollar will play out far more quickly than the collapse of the German mark during the Weimar hyperinflation of 1922-23. So swiftly will this occur, in our opinion, that the hyperinflationary spike will begin and end in mere weeks, leaving deflationary to dominate both before (as it continues to do now) and long after.
A contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum, Ed M,, disagreed — mainly, he said, because there is no precedent for so swift a collapse of a sovereign currency. We present his argument below, followed by our response, but also some interesting thoughts of Ed’s concerning barter.
Here’s Ed:
“The idea that a hyperinflation would come and go in a few days or weeks has no precedent, and, as such I give it little credence.  However, the question for those owning [precious metals] concerning what to ‘transfer’ one’s ‘profits’ into, is very relevant.  Furthermore, there is the issue of taxes on what could be, at least nominally, outsized profits. So, while leaving the question of what to buy momentarily behind, let me offer that arranging some sort of barter might be the way forward for [precious-metal] holders.
“Choices of what to purchase will be more or less the same in future as they are today, but in what will likely be a chaotic environment, some items will be, for a variety of reasons, difficult to acquire expeditiously and economically.
Fungibility
“But here are some of the choices that, depending on where one resides, and what connections one has, may be possible.  Each choice has obvious advantages and disadvantages having to do with relative liquidity, availability, perceived value, maintenance costs, taxes, ‘fungibility,’ etc.
1) Raw Land
2) Food Stuffs
3) Currency
4) Developed Property- commercial and/or residential
5) Precious gemstones
6) Objets d’art
7) ‘Services’ unspecified
8) Other commodities
9) Heavy equipment
10) Businesses unspecified
11) Stocks
12) Bonds
“I haven’t done much research on this question yet, but I imagine that bartering [precious metals] for raw gemstones might be worthwhile.”
Our reply:
History Rarely Repeats
When we try to guess how long it will take for the dollar to collapse, why should precedent matter? History almost never repeats itself in a way that can be clearly foreseen and easily predicted. There’s always a twist, and in this case the speed of the collapse is exactly what we might expect to undo even those who profess to be “ready”.  Bear in mind that the dollar is already a fundamentally valueless IOU, not money, and it is therefore only mere perceptions that need change to make this so in practice. That could happen — globally — in the space of time it takes to air the evening news.
Moreover, it is not the reichsmark or Zimbabwean dollar that we are talking about, but a currency in which nearly everyone on the planet has a crucial stake either directly or indirectly.  Under the circumstances, and given the lightning speed at which news travels these days, it is not difficult to imagine how a global run on the dollar might become unstoppable in mere hours.
The world may be ready and perhaps even resigned to the dollar’s collapse; what few seem to be imagining, however, is how very quickly the collapse could run its course around the world — as quickly, even, as a run on a single bank.
****

by Rick Ackerman
Posted originally on Rick’s Picks, August 20, 2009

1-bill-smallWE POPPED UP ON THE “WRONG” side of the inflation/deflation argument here the other day with a hyperinflation scenario that seems to us not just possible but likely. Although we hold fast to a prediction that deflation is going to run its course, throwing tens of millions of Americans into bankruptcy, before relief comes to debtors, we are persuaded that at some point well down the road the U.S. will throw the switch to hyperinflate. Even so, we believe that the attendant collapse of the dollar will play out far more quickly than the collapse of the German mark during the Weimar hyperinflation of 1922-23. So swiftly will this occur, in our opinion, that the hyperinflationary spike will begin and end in mere weeks, leaving deflationary to dominate both before (as it continues to do now) and long after.

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The Fraud of the Federal Reserve Bank

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The Fraud Of The Federal Reserve Bank
Companies / Banking Stocks
Aug 24, 2009 – 12:08 PM
By: Captain_Hook
Far too many look for easy ways to get rich quick these days, only to be disappointed or shocked when reality bites in the end. Because of this there are no shortage of Ponzi like schemes characterizing the financial landscape, one by one being found out to be frauds, with Bernie Madoff at the top of the list in history thus far. The public was shocked when they discovered the size of the Ponzi scheme he was able to put together and perpetuate for so long, as usually, operations like this fall apart much quicker.
The following is a commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Thursday, August 13th, 2009.
Of course the reason for this was because a far larger Ponzi scheme of which the public remains oblivious enabled Bernie to maintain the illusion for as long as he did as it is at the very heart of our fiat currency based monetary system, that being the Fed. The Fed (and Treasury) have been issuing credit and printing fiat currency on an increasingly unhealthy basis for years now, since Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971, putting the US (and world) on the fiat currency system we find ourselves today.
In case you have not realized it yet in knowing this, it should also be understood that because US credit is issued in USDollars ($), that it too is a Ponzi scheme like bubble as well, to go along with all the other bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. So you see, because of the Fed’s easy money policies all these years, the entire financial system is in fact a giant de facto Ponzi scheme, and that because the $ is presently the world’s reserve currency, the entire global economy has been built on this house of cards. What’s more, and like Madoff then, it should also be realized that although it could still take a few years, we are also coming to the point where the rest of the Fed’s Ponzi schemes will be recognized for what they are as well, with it’s fiat currency printing shenanigans central to the fraud. You should notice I do not use the term ‘fiat money’ when referring to what the Fed does because it does not print money. In order to qualify to be called money, whatever is being exchanged must hold some sort of recognizable value, which the $ does not in being fiat specie backed by a country that owes more than it owns.
So you see, it’s the Fed’s Ponzi scheme that’s the biggest and central, where they are now having to create copious amounts of new currency at break neck speeds in order for Peter to pay Paul in all the smaller Ponzi Schemes that are the result of the Fed’s unbridled printing presses. In knowing this, the next question that naturally arises is ‘how long can they keep this up’? In order to answer this question, one must first understand there is a difference in the Fed’s Ponzi scheme (and other central banks) compared to others, which is why it has gone on for so long. This difference lies in the fact it does not need to find a new batch of suckers on a regular basis to perpetuate the illusion like Madoff and the others must do in order not to get caught. No, all the Fed has to do is expand its balance sheet whenever needed (print currency), which in effect creates the cash flow it needs to feed all the smaller Ponzi schemes down the chain. This keeps everybody fed, which in turn keeps them happy, and maintains the illusion something of worth besides pushing a whole lot of paper around is actually happening.
Thus, in answering the question ‘how long can they keep this up’, appropriately, we must respond ‘far longer than a logical man might think’. This is of course because like Bernie, our self-serving bankers, bureaucrats and politicians will allow the deception to go on for as long as possible no matter how many are financially destroyed along the way, which is why an end to this insanity might be more violent than most are prepared for. And while it’s true the world still accepts the $ in exchange for goods and services, and in turn foreigners issue fiat currencies of their own they expect to be honored on the same basis, pressures are mounting in this respect due to rising prices and supply concerns that are largely created as a result of the mal-investments improperly allocated capital in fiat currency economies tends to sponsor. And again, while it may not happen today or tomorrow, put in simple terms, at some point the worthlessness of all these fiat currencies floating around will be exposed, having hit the limits of their own Ponzi scheme like limits, and trade will breakdown on a global basis.
Will this be the result / cause of war? Who knows? The only thing I know for sure is when this occurs, and because international trade will of course not completely break down, a new means of international exchange will need to be devised to replaced the fiat currency based system we have today, one based on a new trust. And as you may know if you are already well versed in these matters, history teaches us there is only one way to accomplish this, that being gold (and as process unfolds silver) backed currencies. This is when the intrinsic value stored in precious metals will be released. Counties, wealthy individuals, and the general public who have been ignoring the warning signs in this regard will be caught ‘flat footed’ and forced to buy at higher prices. Moreover, whether we arrive at such a point due to inflation or deflation it will not matter in real terms, as the purchasing power of gold and silver will endure either scenario given tight supplies, declining production, and the hoarding that will take place.
Perhaps this is why longer duration precious metals charts continue to look attractive, because it just doesn’t matter. Obviously there are enough people out there that know once the Fed’s Ponzi scheme blows up the demand for gold and silver will literally explode overnight. All that has to happen in order to trigger this is a bank holiday in the States. This would turn the lights on for the ‘dazed and confused’. And all we need for this to happen is for the credit markets to begin freezing up again, which is in fact happening as we speak. In terms of who is the chicken and who is the egg within the formula, the credit markets are a function of the asset bubbles, and the asset bubbles are a function of the Fed’s ability to maintain the illusion it can create wealth. Once this illusion is shattered for the masses, which would happen in a bank holiday revaluation, even the dazed and confused will get it at this point and stop believing in the Fed and its worthless currency. Once the Fed looses the faith of the people, it will be all over for the usury and corruption that it represents, even though it would take time for radical change to appear assuredly.
That’s what I think will happen in the not too distant future based on the way things appear to be unfolding. Sooner or later the Fed will have used all the arrows in its quiver, as clever as they have been to this point. Increasingly, they will find it difficult to expand their balance sheet, especially if it’s to keep increasing monetization practices. They already have a healthy mortgage portfolio, now rivaling Treasury holdings, as can be seen here. What’s next – commercial loans, credit cards, and then more Treasuries as foreigners see this madness and react accordingly. What’s more, if the Fed begins monetizing more and more items (as the real economy continues to unravel), won’t this put its shareholders out of business? After all, the Fed’s primary purpose is to aid the banks in lending, not replace them because the public is broke. If this were to persist, how would banks increase their balance sheets, allowing them to stay in business? The scary part of all the supposed temporary actions on the part of the Fed is they are not temporary at all, and as process unfolds, one by one its member banks will be put out of business by the very actions it now hopes will re-stimulate an exhausted consumer / borrower. (See Figure 1)

by Captain Hook
Posted at The Market Oracle, Aug 24, 2009

Far too many look for easy ways to get rich quick these days, only to be disappointed or shocked when reality bites in the end. Because of this there are no shortage of Ponzi like schemes characterizing the financial landscape, one by one being found out to be frauds, with Bernie Madoff at the top of the list in history thus far. The public was shocked when they discovered the size of the Ponzi scheme he was able to put together and perpetuate for so long, as usually, operations like this fall apart much quicker.

OF COURSE THE REASON FOR THIS WAS because a far larger Ponzi scheme of which the public remains oblivious enabled Bernie to maintain the illusion for as long as he did as it is at the very heart of our fiat currency based monetary system, that being the Fed. The Fed (and Treasury) have been issuing credit and printing fiat currency on an increasingly unhealthy basis for years now, since Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971, putting the US (and world) on the fiat currency system we find ourselves today.

In case you have not realized it yet in knowing this, it should also be understood that because US credit is issued in USDollars ($), that it too is a Ponzi scheme like bubble as well, to go along with all the other bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. So you see, because of the Fed’s easy money policies all these years, the entire financial system is in fact a giant de facto Ponzi scheme, and that because the $ is presently the world’s reserve currency, the entire global economy has been built on this house of cards.

Read the rest of this entry »

Trading Fall and Spring Market Disasters

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Trading Fall And Spring Market Disasters
Our technical and fundamental forecasting suggests we get a double whammy in the equities markets throughout the world during fall of 2009 and later-spring-early-summer of 2010. While the fall event could be a nasty one, the June-July, 2010 smash has potential to be infinitely worse.
Since our work is used by traders and investors preferring differing cycles, markets and goals, we are discussing these things to offer risk-protection ideas. We all search constantly for new trades to make money. However, our focus here is to strongly warn about loss of capital. This is even more important right now than any new ideas on making money.
Obviously, we’re offering a strong degree of supposition and maybe some flat-out guesstimates. But, after watching the global and more importantly our American political circus and evil events from New York trading houses and banks we’re getting a grip on forthcoming events.
To Accept Our Forecast Here’s Some Expectations
1. The Obama Administration is determined to see it through to the bitter end on its reckless spending in Health Care, Cap ‘n’ Trade, TARP, Monetization of U.S. Bond Markets and the continuing saga of Digitizing-Printing gazillions of U.S. Dollars. We see nothing to make this administration change their ways. On Fox News last evening a responsible reporter said, “Obama will crash-and-burn implementing his specious policies going to the bitter end. He is so determined to jump-push everyone off the cliff, we can almost guarantee he’s a one term president.
We say the president is just a puppet for global bankers and corporate directors. He will not waver, as he will do just as he is directed to do;  like all former presidents in recent years. These gang members want centralized power and 100% government control. They will first get chaos and then something far worse if they persist and it goes too far.
2. Market pundits, analysts and other alleged brilliant observers romantically believe in and are enamored with the “Green Shoots Theory.”
The mindset of these folks is to “make the quarter look good and to hell with the long view.” Unlike their Asian counterparts they think the annual calendar is composed of 90 days. While China has a 100 year plan, USA CEO’s think in terms of weeks and seasons and about how quickly they can escape with millions in stock options before everything takes a suicide swan dive over Obama’s cliff.
3. The same news gang firmly tell us China is hot and doing well and will continue to do so. China will be the savior of the entire economic world as they hold all necessary ingredients for a booming economy. China has some fantastic numbers for growth.
China is now in three massive bubbles: (1) Real Estate (2) The Stock Market, And, (3) A Pyramid of Debt. When this baby blows, and it will very soon, they will lead the world over the edge and into the abyss. After all, on the daily trading clock, they are first up after the Aussies. Chinese exports are dead and their organic growth is organ-donations-seizures-sales. They are toast just like the rest of the world.
4. A laundry list of phony stats including unemployment, inventories, consumer sentiment, GDP reports, and solidity in banks and corporations coupled with Washington’s abomination policies will save our collective rear ends.
National USA unemployment is 20% not 10%. And, it’s going to get a whole lot worse. Inventories were temporarily sold-off to the bone demanding more short term production. Who is going to buy this newer junk? Who has credit? No one except the money-printing government and that ends sooner rather than later.
5. The Iraqi-Afghan War is winding down and the newer, spreading Afghan war is under control. 
Yesterday more violence erupted in Iraq and destroyed free elections in Afghanistan as the rebels wrecked 800 voting places. This regional mess has gotten worse not better and was an ill-advised adventure at best. We say the USA and their compatriots walk away just like in Vietnam.
6. The Middle Eastern conflicts are subsiding as the Administration’s newer policies are working. 
Our president has succeeded in destroying relations with Israel, while pandering to Middle Eastern criminals responsible for most of these problems over centuries. Don’t take sides here just look at the facts. For years the USA has Kow-Towed to the Shieks to ensure the flow of oil. It sure worked well didn’t it? Witness 9/11 and about 100 other similar examples. The only thing these folks understand is brute force and cruelty. This is why WW III is coming to a theater near you about 2012 when global economic forces instigate new world war for power and oil.
7. Energy prices along with supply and demand figures tell us this mess is over and we can relax. 
(See answer for number six above).
8. Global Warming is a huge threat to the world therefore we must crush the broken USA economy with new reckless tree-hugger spending, or else we all go up in smoke by next Sunday afternoon. 
Goromania and Global Warming are just another tremendous scam to create a problem and make the taxpayers pay for it. The next ice age is scheduled for 2040. These dolts in their infinite wisdom missed seeing-counting a North Pole iceberg the size of Greenland.
9. While the states within the USA are struggling with dire economic problems right now, the president says no help for you and gives the TARP billions to bankers who just park it to replenish their broken balance sheets. Since those bankers are now made whole, of course all is well and they will go lend like crazy. 
Bankers are sitting on all the cash as they need to stay alive. They are not lending it to anyone as the good credits won’t borrow and the bad credits can’t pay it back. So, the crooked banksters just luxuriate in their new-found stolen taxpayer wealth waiting for the next trading-scam-opportunity. No loans, no business, broken consumers, hello depression.
10. While the USA GDP and that measure of other nations have entered points of no return, we can blunder our way out of this mess by printing more dollars and bonds while persuading non-USA countries to keep giving us credit and buying our valueless paper. 
Excuse me but the Asians and others are frantically working to shed USA paper and avoid buying more to escape and remain solvent. Our splendiferous leaders like Geitner, Paulson, and Chopper Ben were-are passing new paper debt from one pocket to the other. These idiots told us they’ve done this already to the tune of $300 Billion and yes they won’t do it any more. Quick get a shovel or my shoes are covered in a flash.
11. Since Germany is the economic engine of Euroland and they have all under control they will lead us out of this desolation along with China as we all march forward to the old paradigms. 
We mentioned where China is headed. Germany was smarter and has less public debt but they are still stuck in the socialist paradigm and worse, their export customers are vanishing. They fall too, but just not as hard as the rest.
12. Since the food and grain futures have sold down of late, there is plenty of food to go around and don’t worry about having only a one month corn-bin supply, or our suspect threatening weather. 
The world is headed for a food-drought induced shortage disaster. Once again Pollyannas speak of this week, or this month and cannot even see the intermeditate view of the next 18 months. Yes, prices fell with the current no-spendy depression. However, people have to eat and they have to eat every day. The bigger picture spells a disaster of wasted water, grain, under-production and major shortages. Yet, Washington promotes corn-ethanol. Idiots.
13. Obviously since food and grain markets are under control other growers are doing well. 
(See number 12).
14. And of course if this is true, clean water is available in prodigious amounts for years to come. 
China has a major, major clean water emergency. 1/3rd of China is fried with no water. Parts of the USA are going the same way. The Great Lakes were historically low the past few years and Atlanta’s public water supply was literally down to days remaining last year. Now in California, a veggie-growing area the size of Rhode Island has been water-deprived by tree huggers to save a two inch minnow that the birds will eat anyway. This is a major blow to veggie growers, employees and consumers of that produce. Good clean water is increasingly scarce and expensive. Intelligent ideas from government are most scarce of all.
15. The auto industry is now back on track as the government is providing free down payments to unqualified car buyers with its “Cash for Clunkers Program.” Naturally, this idea is proceeding smoothly as government failed to pay the dealers for incurring that debt in hopes of being repaid. 
Government Motors will crash and burn after the Cash for Clunkers Program screws the dealers with non-payments or long-delayed payments. Did those dealers actually believe they would be reimbursed by the Obama administration? Who will buy a $40,000 electric car that stops after 100 miles? A consumer with no credit? Ford and the Asians are the last men standing. They are all losing money despite the news. Count the debts and their sales and you’ll get the real picture.
16. The USA service economy composed of laundry services, convenience store employment, grass cutting, sewing, in-home child care, government employment, and taking-out each others trash should really make those green shoots bloom to the sky. 
USA real GDP to debt crossed over the River Of No Return above 6%. Now it’s at 12% waiting for the crash.  I’m sure we will all pay our $1500 per month health care bills from lawn cutting earnings.
17. The new health care program allegedly gives free services to 50 million non-payers and it won’t cost us any more money. In fact the cost of health care will go down. We’ll make those naughty insurance companies pay and that’s where we get the cash, along with some new taxes of course. 
First of all, among the 50mm described, only 23mm are poor and deprived of any insurance. The rest don’t want it, and prefer to spend money on better investments and bills. Next, even if 23mm were dumped into a new system, where are those doctors and nurses to administer this care? No where. They can’t be found as they didn’t even enter medical school. Come back in ten years-maybe.
18. This new health care plan will be a dandy as we will find new medical staff fully-trained with years of experience to service those 50,000,000 million new patients. 
(See number 17 above). Also, would you spend $250,000 on an 11 year medical education when you see where this national mess is headed? Hell no! Go work at Goldman Sachs where the average employee can earn $750,000 per year trading and drinking coffee. Just graduate from high school, understand how to bet and play cards and find a Goldman insider to refer you for a trading job.
19. California just got cash from someone so their troubles are over and gosh, those guys are even paying back their IOU’s due in September; one month early! They must be all economically healed again. 
Who knows where they got the money?  It doesn’t matter as they will not pay it back anyway. Further, this state returns to its prior emergencies in 30-60 days. The rental trucks are going one way-out of California just like from the Midwest rust-bucket states. After California goes BK watch for New York, New Jersey, and Florida. Maybe Nevada beats them all and files first.
20. The new CEO of AIG told us this morning during a Bloomberg exclusive report he will pay back the billions borrowed from taxpayers and make that company whole as we all dance happily into the economic sunset together. 
Since personal and corporate buyers of insurance are going broke and canceling policies right and left, this certainly seems like a logical plan. AIG will be borrowing more TARP funds and they could hit the BK drain anyway.
21. Naturally, the top dictators of our world from North Korea, the Middle East (take your pick) along with Chavez, Fido and other South American Leader-Guys And Gals will not foment trouble for the USA but instead buy into Obama’s fig leaf, Neville Chamberlain appeasement strategy. Wow! Maybe KGB’s Putin will come to the White House with flowers instead of missiles. 
The good news here is whoever among this dictator menagerie makes a naughty move first, will be hammered into the dust by the most powerful military in the world-the USA. And, Israel will not standby waiting for Obama’s blessing to attack Iran. It’s probably all over before he wakes up for breakfast.
22. The industrial rust-bucket Midwest will regain its former employment glory with millions of new higher-paid manufacturing jobs as in the “North Shall Rise Again.”
We suggest that like the City of Detroit, now returning to the woodsy, agrarian wild, so will the rest of the Midwest. People are leaving the state for work at lower pay. Never again will the Midwest contain that manufacturing might of the 1890’s to 1960’s. The American auto industry has moved to non-union locations in the south and out of the country. They cannot afford Obama wages and benefits. We noticed this week the very high class University of Michigan is extending more student loans to fill their colleges. Those kids do not have the money for tuition, room and board. If the U of M did not help them there would be lots of empty seats at the U this fall.
23. Consumers will find work and since they are 70% of the economy we can for sure expect them to come-on-down with billions in new spending for Chinese junk supporting USA retailers and Asian exports forever. 
Watch for a major back-to-school fall retailing disaster. Unemployment will rise for at least another three 
years, or even longer. Jobless consumers can’t buy anything. They get food stamps and utility shut-
offs. Asian exporters are finished. They have no western buyers for their stuff and the Asian organic 
home-grown consumer is just a myth.
24. If you believe these fantasies you’ll believe anything. We’re in a world of hurt but this does not mean we go down with Obama’s ship. Here are some ideas for preserving your property and your capital.
-Get ruthless in elimination of personal debt. Go through your expenses and check book culling out and stopping as much fluff as possible. 
-Own physical gold and silver. If you have a slim budget start with one silver coin and work your way up from there. 
-Fill-up the pantry at home. Store some water. 
-Keep 30-90 days of cash in your hand in the house. 
-Own a generator. The grid is coming apart at age 50, or higher. There is no money for repairs. 
-Sell your cars and get a pick-up truck. Pay cash if possible.
-Plant a garden. 
-Network with friends and neighbors to help each other. Give to charity to the best of your ability.
-Get out of the stock market except for precious metals shares and trades. Most all paper trades are open to being wrecked by an imploding system. 
-Good shorts are major stock markets, retailers, the US Government, any government programs, real estate and its taxes, urban area living, and trusting the general news. .
Financials crashed in fall 2008 with Lehman. Recovery began with TARP May, 2009: During this month of August we have more of a dead cat bounce ahead with a big smash in Mid-September. While precious metals and their shares are off this August 20, 2009, for the intermediate term (next 90 days) the trend reverses and moves to rallies.
Keep in mind, if you own paid for stuff it will most  likely remain in your hands; not in somebody else’s. That includes gold and silver.
Do not get tangled-up in daily noise. Keep studying the larger view and buy precious metals after each profit-taking correction. Headwinds are building into an economic hurricane. Take care of business right now. My dire fall prediction might surprise us and arrive earlier. Time is short.
Personally, I can see unbelievable opportunities to trade that we would never see again for many years. Turn these problems into opportunities. Those on the right side of the trade might get rich. Those on the other side are just victims. Stay Alert. –Traderrog

by Roger Wiegand
Posted originally 21 August 2009

Our technical and fundamental forecasting suggests we get a double whammy in the equities markets throughout the world during fall of 2009 and later-spring-early-summer of 2010. While the fall event could be a nasty one, the June-July, 2010 smash has potential to be infinitely worse.

SINCE OUR WORK IS USED by traders and investors preferring differing cycles, markets and goals, we are discussing these things to offer risk-protection ideas. We all search constantly for new trades to make money. However, our focus here is to strongly warn about loss of capital. This is even more important right now than any new ideas on making money.

Obviously, we’re offering a strong degree of supposition and maybe some flat-out guesstimates. But, after watching the global and more importantly our American political circus and evil events from New York trading houses and banks we’re getting a grip on forthcoming events.

To accept our forecast here are some expectations

1. The Obama Administration is determined to see it through to the bitter end on its reckless spending in Health Care, Cap ‘n’ Trade, TARP, Monetization of U.S. Bond Markets and the continuing saga of Digitizing-Printing gazillions of U.S. Dollars. We see nothing to make this administration change their ways. On Fox News last evening a responsible reporter said, “Obama will crash-and-burn implementing his specious policies going to the bitter end. He is so determined to jump-push everyone off the cliff, we can almost guarantee he’s a one term president.”

We say the president is just a puppet for global bankers and corporate directors. He will not waver, as he will do just as he is directed to do;  like all former presidents in recent years. These gang members want centralized power and 100% government control. They will first get chaos and then something far worse if they persist and it goes too far.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ten Things that are missing from Obama’s Health Care Reform Debate

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Ten Things That Are Missing from Obama’s Health Care Reform Debate
Thursday, August 20, 2009 by: Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, NaturalNews Editor
(NaturalNews) You can’t fix one broken system by replacing it with another broken system. Sure, the current health care system of “that’s a pre-existing condition” insurance companies, employer-funded health insurance and miserable Medicaid is a public health disaster, but if we’re going to fix the system, we have to come up with something that actually addresses the root cause of disease in America.

The current health care reform debate in Washington is really just a distraction — a ploy to keep everyone focused on all the wrong topics while quietly refusing to talk about the big issues that threaten the health of an entire nation.

Here are the top 10 things missing from Obama’s health care reform plan (and often absent from the debate):

#1) Ending the FDA’s suppression of natural cures and safe, effective nutritional supplements.

#2) Initiating a real investment in public education to teach people about how to prevent disease with nutrition.

#3) Ending Big Pharma’s monopoly on drug prices and drug patents (not to mention patents on human genes and animals).

#4) Restoring the ability for local doctors to practice local medicine without being controlled from bureaucrats in Washington.

#5) Cracking down on junk food advertising, soda advertising and pharmaceutical ads that convince people to purchase products that will only harm them.

#6) Banning dangerous chemical ingredients that cause diseases in the first place (aspartame, MSG, sodium nitrite, etc.)

#7) A real effort to improve school lunches and serve food that’s nutritious instead of food that’s cheap and convenient.

#8) Ending bizarre food subsidies on crops like corn that end up making high-fructose corn syrup the cheapest sweetener for manufacturers to use.

#9) Affirming health freedom for parents who wish to opt out of the current system of forced vaccinations and gunpoint-enforced chemotherapy.

#10) Requiring honest food labeling where irradiated and GMO foods are clearly labeled as such.

by Mike Adams, NaturalNews Editor
Thursday, August 20, 2009

YOU CAN’T FIX ONE BROKEN SYSTEM by replacing it with another broken system. Sure, the current health care system of insurance companies (“that’s a pre-existing condition”), employer-funded health insurance and miserable Medicaid are a public health disaster, but if we’re going to fix the system, we have to come up with something that actually addresses the root cause of disease in America.

The current health care reform debate in Washington is really just a distraction – a ploy to keep everyone focused on all the wrong topics while quietly refusing to talk about the big issues that threaten the health of an entire nation.

Here are the top 10 things missing from Obama’s health care reform plan (and often absent from the debate):

#1) Ending the FDA’s suppression of natural cures and safe, effective nutritional supplements.
#2) Initiating a real investment in public education to teach people about how to prevent disease with nutrition.
#3) Ending Big Pharma’s monopoly on drug prices and drug patents (not to mention patents on human genes and animals).
#4) Restoring the ability for local doctors to practice local medicine without being controlled from bureaucrats in Washington.
#5) Cracking down on junk food advertising, soda advertising and pharmaceutical ads that convince people to purchase products that will only harm them.
#6) Banning dangerous chemical ingredients that cause diseases in the first place (aspartame, MSG, sodium nitrite, etc.)
#7) A real effort to improve school lunches and serve food that’s nutritious instead of food that’s cheap and convenient.
#8) Ending bizarre food subsidies on crops like corn that end up making high-fructose corn syrup the cheapest sweetener for manufacturers to use.
#9) Affirming health freedom for parents who wish to opt out of the current system of forced vaccinations and gunpoint-enforced chemotherapy.
#10) Requiring honest food labeling where irradiated and GMO foods are clearly labeled as such.