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Peak… Everything

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by Tom McCafferty
Posted originally May 20, 2011

Crude oil is just one of many things the world is running out of, says Tom McCafferty, author of Options Demystified and numerous other books on trading.

WE ARE ALL FAMILIAR WITH ALL THE HULLABALOO in recent years over Peak Oil. Dozens of books and websites devoted an enormous about of space to scaring the pants off of us. In a few years, we would be all be sitting in a dark, cold room without access to “Dancing with the Stars”.  Man… that will be a bummer! Before you get your blood pressure back under control, I’m here to tell you the Peak Oil is just the beginning. The World is facing more peaks that it can handle in the next few decades. For example:

•  Peak Water:  The World does not have enough water for crops or the increasing population. Every wonder why China was so aggressive to control sleepy little Tibet? Guess where the origins of the five great Chinese rivers are located? Or why it is importing so many tons of soybeans? When thinking about food importation, think of it as just a substitute for importing water. China is not alone. In India, the Green Revolution is now a disaster.

•  Peak Population:  How many people can the World sustain? I’m afraid we are going to find out the hard way. More specifically, how many senior citizens can it take care of… think of our Social Security system and then think of countries like Russia or Italy that have an even more serious aging challenge. China is right in line because of its one-child policy.

•  Peak Money: How much fiat currency can the World float? Remember, there has never a fiat currency that did not collapse.

•  Peak Weather:  Global Warming or long-term cycles? It doesn’t matter. Oceans and temperatures are rising.

•  Peak Politics It has always been a mess and it only seems to get worse. Are there any politicians or leaders that are not just out for themselves? Sadly, it also applies to their constituents.

•  Peak Taxes Will there every be enough tax money to solve every problem? Can our cities, states and national governments every balance a budget and reduce their deficits? If we can’t, how are the poorer countries going to cope?

My point is there are more than enough problems facing the World and its investors to keep all the prognosticators busy.

 

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Land of the Setting Sun

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by Jim Quinn
Originally posted March 28, 2011
(Apologies to Mr Quinn, his article is slightly condensed here.)

THE LINEAR THINKERS THAT DOMINATE THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA and the halls of power in Washington D.C. are assessing the series of disasters in Japan without connecting the dots of history. Their ideological desire to convince people that things will go back to normal in short order flies in the face of the facts.

It makes me wonder whether these supposed thought leaders lack true intelligence or whether their ideological biases convince them to lie. At the end of the day it comes down to wealth, power and control. If those in power were to tell the truth about the true consequences of demographics, debt, disasters, and devaluation, their subjects would revolt and toss them out. Before the multiple disasters struck Japan last week, the sun was already setting on this empire. The recent tragic events will accelerate that descent.

Japanese Beetle Meet Windshield

Smart financial minds have been expecting a Japanese economic tsunami for the last few years. John Mauldin described Japan’s predicament in early 2010:

“I refer to Japan as a bug in search of a windshield. I am not so sure about the timing, however, as the economic and fiscal insanity that is Japan may be able to go on for longer than many think possible. But to me it is not a question of whether there will be a crisis, but when there will be one. This year? 2011? 2012? I doubt Japan makes it to the middle of the decade with a very serious and sad day of reckoning.”

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard expected a 9.0 debt earthquake to strike Japan in 2010:

“Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting. This is the year when Tokyo finds it can no longer borrow at 1% from a captive bond market, and when it must foot the bill for all those fiscal packages that seemed such a good idea at the time. Every auction of JGBs will be a news event as the public debt punches above 225% of GDP. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii will become as familiar as a rock star.

Once the dam breaks, debt service costs will tear the budget to pieces. The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China’s yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbor race to the bottom.”

Mr. Pritchard was either wrong or early, depending upon your point of view.

Debt & Demographics

Japan is a one trick pony that just broke two legs and is waiting to be put down. They have experienced a two decade long recession. Their stock market is still 70% below its 1990 peak. They have no natural resources. They allow virtually no immigration. And their population is in a death spiral. The one and only thing they have going for them is their phenomenal ability to manufacture high quality products and export them to the rest of the world. The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan severely damaged their ‘just in time’ manufacturing machine. A surging yen would destroy their export machine by making their products more expensive. Hundreds of high tech Toyota, Honda, and Sony factories are shut. Four hundred miles of ports and harbors have been wiped out. There are rolling blackouts, with one million households without electricity. Over 500,000 people are still homeless.

The short-term impact of this disaster will push Japan into recession. The rebuilding efforts over the coming years will create a positive GDP figure, but will not do anything to benefit Japan over the long haul. The billions designated to rebuild will be money not invested in a more beneficial manner. The linear thinkers conclude that over the long-term Japan will be OK. These people are ignoring the double D’s – Debt and Demographics. When Japan entered its two decades of recession and experienced the Kobe earthquake in 1995, its government debt stood at 52% of GDP. Today it stands at 225% of GDP.

Twenty one years ago, the Japanese population was still relatively young, with only 12% of the population over 65 years old. The population of Japan peaked in 2004 and now is in relentless decline. Over 23% of the population is over 65 and the median age is 45 years old. For comparison, the median age in the U.S. is 37 years old, with only 13% over 65. The population of Japan is aging rapidly and will decline by 4.4 million, or 3.5% in the next ten years.

The question I pose to the mainstream thinkers is, “How can a country with a rapidly aging population and nearly one quarter of its population over 65 years old generate the necessary dynamic enthusiasm for rebuilding a shattered country?” Youthful enthusiasm and hope for a brighter future is essential to any enormous rebuilding effort. Japan does not have it in them. News reports already indicate a lethargic and seemingly insufficient response by emergency workers. The devastation seems to have overwhelmed this aging country. The psychological impact of this type of natural disaster will likely have two phases. Psychology professor Magda Osman describes the expected human response:

“After a disaster, typically small communities become incredibly co-operative and pull together to help each other and start the rebuilding process. There’s an immediate response where people start to take control of the situation, begin to deal with it and assess and respond to the devastation around them. The problem is that we aren’t very good at calculating the long-term effects of disasters. After about two months of re-building and cleaning up we tend to experience a second major slump when we realize the full severity of the situation in the longer term. This is what we need to be wary of because this triggers severe depression.”

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Here Comes the Sun

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by Lawrence E. Joseph
excerpt from Aftermath, A Guide to Preparing and Surviving Apocalypse 2012
(paperback edition to be published August 2011)

Although the date would stump most trivia buffs, September 2, 1859, is when the greatest magnetic storm ever recorded hit the Earth. It is also the date likeliest to be replayed in 2012, with one important difference: this time, the devastation will be colossal.

The Carrington event, named after Richard Carrington, the amateur British astronomer who took the lead in observing and explaining it, was actually a one-two punch that uppercut the Earth over the course of a week. The first of the two massive solar explosions began forming some-time in mid-August 1859, when an unusually large sunspot appeared on the northwest portion of the Sun’s face. On August 27, it erupted like a zit, shooting out a Moon-sized glob of plasma, or supercharged gas. Such blasts are known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

CMEs are usually shaped like croissants, according to a discovery made in 2009 by STEREO, a pair of NASA probes that flank the Sun and photograph these explosions from opposite sides. According to Angelos Vourlidas of the Naval Research Laboratory, a computer model designer for the STEREO mission, CMEs are formed in a manner akin to that of twisting the ends of a rope around and around, tighter and tighter, until the middle bulges out. Instead of rope, Slinky-like lines of magnetic force twist out of the sunspots. Eventually, after enough twisting, the crescent-shaped coil of plasma snaps free and spins away from the Sun at a million miles per hour or more, which is just what happened in the Carrington event.

The first cosmic croissant of the Carrington event hit Earth the next day, August 28, 1859, causing some of the most beautiful auroras ever seen. The northern lights don’t normally extend down to Havana, Cuba, but this time they did, making the sky there appear as though it were stained with blood and on fire.

On September 1, 1859, the Sun erupted again, even more furiously. According to scientists’ reconstructions, the second Carrington CME was dozens of times more powerful than average, weighing in at about 10 billion tons and 10 trillion trillion watts (trillions of times more than the sum total of all electrical, mechanical, combustible, muscular, animal, and plant energy than has been produced or consumed in the history of the planet). Traveling at about 5 million miles per hour, it was also one of the fastest ever recorded. Think of a tennis ball machine suddenly rifling out a (molten, radioactive) basketball.

When CMEs launch, they create a shockwave that slaps the solar wind, a sphere of charged particles, mostly protons. This impact causes what is known as an SEP (solar energetic particle) event, which accelerates everything in its path exponentially; most of these supercharged particles take an hour or less to reach the Earth’s atmosphere, where they fuse nitrogen and oxygen atoms to create nitrates, which eventually settle as dust onto the poles. Although the Carrington SEP is generally considered the largest on record, back then no one noticed it because there were no instruments sensitive enough to detect it. (Evidence of the 1859 SEP impact has since been found in anomalous nitrate-laden ice core samples that date back to that time.)

Today, there are satellite-borne instruments sensitive enough to detect SEPs, most of which would probably have been fried by the Carrington event’s ferocity. Indeed, far lesser SEPs are blamed for having disabled a number of spacecraft, including Japan’s Nozomi satellite, dooming that nation’s mission to Mars. SEPs also threaten astronauts; a Carrington-scale event would imperil those aboard the International Space Station.

At 4:50 GMT on September 2, 1859, the second and by far the more powerful Carrington CME barreled into the Earth, fifteen to twenty hours behind the SEP shockwave it had detonated. The CME made quite a splash in the headlines, sizzling telegraph wires, causing fires, and filling the sky with an auroral glow that made midnight as bright as noon.

“The electricity that attended this beautiful phenomenon took possession of the magnetic wires throughout the country, and there were numerous side displays in the telegraph offices where fantastical and unreadable messages came through the instruments, and where the atmospheric fireworks assumed shape and substance in brilliant sparks,” reported the Philadelphia Evening Bulletin. The electrical blasts were so powerful that some telegraph operators disconnected the batteries to their equipment and were still able to send and receive messages just operating on the power that was heavenly supplied.

Were we hit today by a geomagnetic storm of equivalent strength to the Carrington event, our civilization could well be plunged into chaos. This is not an exaggeration. Rather, it is the consensus of those who presented at the National Academy of Sciences’ report Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, published in December 2008.

The report’s executive summary says:
Because of the interconnectedness of critical infrastructures in modern society, the impacts of severe space weather events can go beyond disruption of existing technical systems and lead to short-term as well as to long-term collateral socioeconomic disruptions. Electric power is modern society’s cornerstone technology, the technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend. Collateral effects of a longer-term outage [such as would almost certainly result from a Carrington-scale space weather event] would likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration. The resulting loss of services for a significant period of time in even one region of the country could affect the entire nation and have international impact as well.

Contributors from NASA, NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration), the Smithsonian Institution, the United States Air Force, a number of major universities, and advanced technology corporations gave evidence that a contemporary Carrington-scale event would lead to deep and widespread social disruption. Basic to this contention are the enormous changes to the United States’ infrastructure over the past century and a half. Modern society is utterly dependent on electricity. The electrical system is the master system upon which all others depend. And it is vulnerable to historically large space weather events.

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Warning: Extreme weather, imminent earthquake danger

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by Piers Corbyn
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=328&c=5

EXTREME WEATHER AND EARTHQUAKE DANGER IMMINENT around 23rd-27th March warns Piers Corbyn

The very active solar region which emerged from the SE limb of the sun on the morning of 21st March is crackling with dangerous activity including extreme UV radiation and up to 50Mev proton bursts and its appearance along with other active regions on the sun fits our WeatherAction.com long-range WARNING for significant weather extremes and earthquakes in the period around 23rd-27th March, issued during February.

WATCH SOLAR ACTION DEVELOP:

Solar activity details: http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=03&day=21&year=2011&view=view (= http://bit.ly/h13CuA  use forward button to get to next day) and http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ 2nd graph down purple blip is 50Mev. The other levels are different colours. Notice 1Mev is staying high on 22nd also. Note the Spaceweather link already shows a solar wind stream from a coronal hole will hit Earth 23/24th March, the newly reported activity on the sun will lead to earth hits following that. Solar wind hit 527km/sec – that’s fast on 23rd March. Geomagnetic Activity – should increase in 23-27th periods – See http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

We warned of these dangers – with weather event detail for USA, West Europe, Australia, New Zealand and BanglaDesh in forecasts issued around the end of February and repeated on the posting “15/16…March THE DANGEROUS TIMES THE WORLD IS IN….”  http://bit.ly/enMFIy

WATCH FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES:

Piers Corbyn says “The recent extreme Earthquake events in the world were preceded by extreme events on the sun – specifically X level solar flares and related proton bursts. It appears to us that it is always the case that extreme weather and earthquake events are preceded by extreme events on the sun and historically proton events which are usually associated with X flares are an especially reliable warning of extreme weather, storm formation and earthquake events.

We have no forecast of specifically where the earthquake events are most likely except to say that the Pacific “ring of fire” is very vulnerable and new serious earthquake events in Japan and /or the West USA are very possible. Some other researchers** have also been making warnings of earthquake events around the present period. My main risk periods are a bit later than theirs because although lunar tidal effects (such as ‘Supermoon’ 19th March) are important we find the solar hits are crucial determinants. **Links to these forecasts of others which include comments on possible regions are available via the link above – http://bit.ly/enMFIy

EARTHQUAKE WATCH:

More Significant – Magnitude 6.0 or above shown in Red –LINK http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php On 22nd (Okay for investigation given approx timings especially of Earthquakes) M=6.1 mid-Atlantic ridge is interesting as well as 4 quakes in Japan bigger than M=6 with 2 of M=6.6 . There was only one of M 6.0 or above (it was 6.1 in Japan) in previous 4 days 18-21 Mar. M 6.5 or above is probably more than an aftershock. For comparison the devastating New Zealand Earthquake of 21st Feb 2011 was M=6.3 but rather near the surface

#thaiquake 13.55z24Mar M6.8 http://1.usa.gov/dOgl4I CONFIRMS PiersCorbyn’s LongRange Extreme Quake warning 23-27Mar http://bit.ly/hBHho1

WATCH EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS:

“The weather events are expected in two waves ~23/24th and ~26/27th and extreme earthquake events risk is significantly enhanced all through this period 23-27th March but probably more enhanced later with high risk continuing a day or so after 27th.

“The long range predicted weather events in the double period 23-27th March include:
– Snow deluges / cold blasts in N/ NE Britain & NW Europe
– USA A double whammy of major snow & blizzards (esp 25-27th) Great Lakes & West thereof; Tornadoes in South
– Australia Tropical Cyclone formation likely East of Queensland and Tornado possible New Zealand (North Island) prob 23/24th. Tornado formation risk is high in Bangladesh 26/27th

FULL DETAILS of these forecasts for the whole of March are available via http://bit.ly/dNhlNo . New subscribers now (late March) also will get access to the April forecasts when available at the end of March at no further charge.

WEATHER NEWS UPDATES:

USA 23rd March (as on twitter) MORE confirmation of W-Action 23-24th March  warnings. WeatherChannel: “242 severe reports as of 8:30pm EDT, most in a day since February 28th”. The reports were of large hail, damaging winds, tornado developments etc in various parts

N/NE Britain & West Europe 23rd March. Short range forecast maps show cold plunge starting and devloping over next few days in W Europe and N/NE Britain http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/,.gif,bracka,brack0,brack0a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4 Note: S / SW parts and  Ireland will be warmer

As radioactive rain starts to pour, Japan engages in another cover up as it increases decontamination threshold sixteenfold

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by Tyler Durden
Posted originally March 21, 2011

Even as the market has now apparently fully priced in Fukushima, the bad news continues coming:
• TOKYO ELECTRIC RADIOACTIVITY FOUND CONFIRMS FUEL DAMAGE: NHK
• TOKYO ELECTRIC DETECTS 5 TYPES OF RADIOACTIVITY, NHK SAYS

No surprise there: by now everyone is well aware that the fuel rods are if not completely then certainly partially destroyed. However, the real danger, and which explains why we have been following atmospheric conditions over Japan so closely, is that as Kyodo just reported, the rain is now pouring radioactive cats and dogs. But the most troubling development is that instead of being proactive and finally warning its citizens about the dangers, the Japanese government has just raised the decontamination threshold by nearly 20 times from 6,000 cpm to a stunning 100,000 cpm. Is is rather safe to assume that this number was not picked arbitrarily. (technical explanation at end of article)

From Kyodo:

Greater levels of radioactive materials found due to rain

TOKYO, March 22, Kyodo
Far greater amounts of radioactive iodine and cesium were found in rain, dust and particles in the air in some areas over a 24-hour period from Sunday morning due to rainfall, the science ministry said Monday.

”Considering the results of a separate test, radioactive materials in the air and drinking water are confined to levels that would not affect health,” an official of the Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology said. ”The impact on agricultural crops needs to be examined mainly by the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.”

In a notice to the nation’s 47 prefectures, the health ministry called on local governments on Monday to advise residents to stop giving babies water in forms such as baby formula if radioactive iodine is found in drinking water at levels greater than 100 becquerels per kiloliter.

”Babies can easily absorb radioactive iodine in their thyroid glands,” a ministry official said, explaining the reason for issuing the notice. The intake limit set by the central government is 300 becquerels per kiloliter of water.

The science ministry said separately traces of the substances were detected in drinking water sampled Sunday in nine prefectures but they were all below the intake limits set by the government. The nationwide survey showed both radioactive iodine and cesium were found in Ibaraki, Tochigi and Gunma prefectures, while iodine alone was found in Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Niigata and Yamanashi.

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Jim Berkland: Major California earthquake predicted for March 19th – 26th

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from politicsandfinance.blogspot.com
Originally posted March 16, 2011

 

For an enlarged image of the map (left), click on: http://www.seismic.ca.gov/pub/shaking_18x23.pdf

 

Neil Cavuto interview with former USGS geologist Jim Berkland who claims a 75% success rate in earthquake prediction:

Watching Fox in order to stay current on the nuclear events unfolding in Japan, I listened to a Cavuto interview with Jim Berkland. Berkland is known as the man who predicted the World Series earthquake four days before it hit back in 1989. He is now predicting a major seismic event to occur in California sometime between the dates of the 19th and 26th of this month.

Eccentric? Maybe! But while past performance is no guarantee of future results, his is a voice that should be taken somewhat seriously.

Jim Berkland in his own words

“… Mainstream scientists generally try to debunk various aspects of my earthquake predictions or to ridicule me personally, with epithets such as crackpot or clown. My response is to question their own records in earthquake prediction, and to point out that the main action of a stream is not near the center, but closer to the edge. Near the fringes, with eddies and cross-currents, erosion and deposition are more effective, sometimes leading to changes in the course of the stream. Conformity does not lead to invention. Scientific progress is not achieved by majority vote. Following my pilgrimage to Gizeh [Egypt] with John Anthony West, I discovered the meaning of life: To seek your purpose and strive to achieve it. Anything less is a waste of existence. I am fortunate to have found that my purpose is to de-mystify earthquakes for the public so that meaningful preparations take the place of fatalistic attitudes, that often prove fatal.

The experts of High Science state that earthquake prediction is currently a scientific impossibility. I maintain that the topic is too important to leave to the experts and I continue to do the impossible with a better than 75% batting average, which is more than 300% greater than chance…”

Cavuto/Berkland interview excerpt from Fox video (above)

BERKLAND: Well, if it was, one in the northwest, in the Cascadia Trench, like we had in 1700, that would be a nine magnitude quake. I’m not predicting that. But I’m saying we just had a massive fish kill. Maybe a million fish died in Redondo Beach. They had a massive fish sweep in Mexico. We just had a bunch of whales come in close to San Diego.

CAVUTO: What does that presage? When you have events like that, what does that generally mean? What’s going on in the waters?

BERKLAND: Changes – changes in the magnetic field that often precede larger earthquakes. Most animals have the mineral magnetite in their bodies, including people. But it enables homing pigeons to get home. Just before big quakes, they often can’t get home. There is the delay factor. So we look for those kinds of things.

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Alert: Nuclear (and economic) meltdown in progress

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by Chris Martenson
Originally posted Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Important note:

It is with a heavy heart that I am now issuing the HIGHEST LEVEL alert to my readers than I have to date. The threshold for an alert is one or more world events that personally cause me to take action.

I’m making this alert publicly available less than 36 hours after releasing it to my enrolled subscribers given its importance and the speed at which events are accelerating.

The substance of this alert centers on the unknown aftershocks that may result from the world’s third largest economy, Japan, rapidly shifting from an exporter of funding to a consumer of it. In situations like these, we are by definition operating with incomplete and often confusing information, and events are developing more rapidly than they can be fully analyzed and internalized. We regret in advance any mistakes that we might make due to making calls and decisions in this highly fluid environment.

This alert warns you that major world-changing events are now underway and that your personal preparations for an uncertain future should either be completed or take on a new sense of urgency. On the basis of the information contained here and in the past two days of posts, I am personally ratcheting up my preparations, making purchases, and topping off what needs to be topped off.

Important caveat: At this point in time, I cannot fully support 100% of my concerns with hard data and evidence. Some of what has tipped me into this state of urgency is data, evidence, and stories that I can point to. Some is due to the absence of data or information, the remainder results from watching market gyrations and correlations shift into new patterns, which tell me something is afoot.

I have not been this concerned since October of 2008.

Some Background

Within hours of learning of the event at Reactor 1 in Japan, I had looked at the evidence available, drawn a few conclusions, and then checked to see what the experts were saying. Never quite sure of what sort of personal and/or professional limitations are in play, I rarely start with anyone’s assessment but my own. It’s part of trusting myself and it has worked remarkably well for me and my subscribers over the years.

Here’s what I wrote in the blog on the morning of Saturday, March 12, 2011 on Japan’s nuclear incident:

There have been reports from Japan’s nuclear agency that radioactive cesium and iodine were detected outside of the facility, which can only happen if the core has been exposed somehow. Perhaps that’s all under control now, but the evidence for very high temperatures, the explosion of the containment building, a 12-mile evacuation zone, and the presence of cesium and iodine all indicate that perhaps the complete situation is not being shared with the public.

If you live in Japan, you should be heading well upwind of this facility and have potassium iodide pills on hand. I would personally be reading the wind forecasts and assuring that I was upwind.

My expertise involves making sense of the world in relatively short order. It also helps me smell B.S. remarkably quickly, especially from official sources. The nuclear situation in Japan struck me from the outset as being rather more serious than described, and this has proven true. I take no pride in this particular ‘victory,’ and instead feel the burden of having to be the bearer of bad news.

The nature of this alert is to let you know that I consider the chance of a renewed round of economic and fiscal crises to result from the chaos that is currently engulfing Japan and the MENA region to be extremely high.

A Global Meltdown

For decades, the world has been running its own nuclear-style reaction, only in the currency and debt markets, where exponentially-accelerating piles of debt and money have spun about faster and faster in a gigantic, complex, coordinated reaction, the core of which is, and always has been, the United States.

At the very center of this ungainly money reactor is the main fuel pile itself, the US Treasury market. With any interruption to smooth flow of money through this pile, it will immediately become unstable.

The threat I see goes like this:

Stage 1: The world watches, riveted, as Japan suffers a tragic and horrible earthquake and tsunami, but as horrifying as these are, they are localized phenomenon affecting a relatively small percentage of the country. The real trouble lurks within damaged nuclear plants, which are now ruined and will never again produce electricity for Japan, creating instant shortages that will take years to remedy. Worse, a dangerous plume of radioactivity is carried south by winds. Tokyo partially empties and shuts down for all practical purposes.

Stage 2: The abrupt slow down of the world’s third largest economy alters the smooth flow of cash around the globe, and even causes reversals of some other long-standing flows. Chaotic eddies emerge in a decades-old pattern of ever-increasing flows of money into and out of the money centers, and various carry-trade and other interest-rate-sensitive strategies blow up. Manufacturing in Japan screeches to a halt, disrupting just-in-time manufacturing strategies both internally and across the globe.

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